Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration indicate a daytime range of 26–31°C in Taipei on August 24 under mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers or thunderstorms, limiting surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Model consensus across sources shows highs clustered near 28–31°C amid high humidity and easterly flow, with minor spreads arising from uncertainty in afternoon convective timing and intensity. This narrow envelope of expected maxima explains the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities between 28°C and 32°C or higher, as traders weigh the balance between brief clearing that could allow brief warming versus persistent cloud cover that suppresses peaks. Updated model runs ahead of the date will likely refine the exact maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on August 24?
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 24?
29°C 22%
32°C or higher 22%
30°C 20%
31°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
5%
28°C
15%
29°C
22%
30°C
20%
31°C
19%
32°C or higher
22%
29°C 22%
32°C or higher 22%
30°C 20%
31°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
22°C or below
$3,114 Vol.
2%
23°C
$1,539 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,283 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,048 Vol.
2%
26°C
$150 Vol.
3%
27°C
$71 Vol.
5%
28°C
$408 Vol.
15%
29°C
$163 Vol.
22%
30°C
$22 Vol.
20%
31°C
$100 Vol.
19%
32°C or higher
$382 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration indicate a daytime range of 26–31°C in Taipei on August 24 under mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers or thunderstorms, limiting surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Model consensus across sources shows highs clustered near 28–31°C amid high humidity and easterly flow, with minor spreads arising from uncertainty in afternoon convective timing and intensity. This narrow envelope of expected maxima explains the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities between 28°C and 32°C or higher, as traders weigh the balance between brief clearing that could allow brief warming versus persistent cloud cover that suppresses peaks. Updated model runs ahead of the date will likely refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,280End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcssResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration indicate a daytime range of 26–31°C in Taipei on August 24 under mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers or thunderstorms, limiting surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Model consensus across sources shows highs clustered near 28–31°C amid high humidity and easterly flow, with minor spreads arising from uncertainty in afternoon convective timing and intensity. This narrow envelope of expected maxima explains the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities between 28°C and 32°C or higher, as traders weigh the balance between brief clearing that could allow brief warming versus persistent cloud cover that suppresses peaks. Updated model runs ahead of the date will likely refine the exact maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcss
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,280End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rcssResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration indicate a daytime range of 26–31°C in Taipei on August 24 under mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers or thunderstorms, limiting surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Model consensus across sources shows highs clustered near 28–31°C amid high humidity and easterly flow, with minor spreads arising from uncertainty in afternoon convective timing and intensity. This narrow envelope of expected maxima explains the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities between 28°C and 32°C or higher, as traders weigh the balance between brief clearing that could allow brief warming versus persistent cloud cover that suppresses peaks. Updated model runs ahead of the date will likely refine the exact maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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