Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Météo-France place Paris’s August 24 maximum near 25–27°C, with modest spread arising from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage. After mid-August heatwave conditions that produced several days above 29°C, models indicate a gradual cool-down driven by increased Atlantic influence and northerly flow, keeping values close to late-summer climatology. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25–27°C mirrors this narrow forecast envelope, while lower odds for 28°C+ reflect limited potential for renewed subsidence or clearer skies. Updated model runs and 48-hour observational trends will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 24?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 24?
26°C 28%
27°C 25%
25°C 21%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
9%
25°C
21%
26°C
28%
27°C
25%
28°C
15%
29°C
6%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
26°C 28%
27°C 25%
25°C 21%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$154 Vol.
1%
24°C
$234 Vol.
9%
25°C
$782 Vol.
21%
26°C
$996 Vol.
28%
27°C
$553 Vol.
25%
28°C
$1,161 Vol.
15%
29°C
$548 Vol.
6%
30°C
$598 Vol.
3%
31°C
$355 Vol.
1%
32°C
$250 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$36 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Météo-France place Paris’s August 24 maximum near 25–27°C, with modest spread arising from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage. After mid-August heatwave conditions that produced several days above 29°C, models indicate a gradual cool-down driven by increased Atlantic influence and northerly flow, keeping values close to late-summer climatology. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25–27°C mirrors this narrow forecast envelope, while lower odds for 28°C+ reflect limited potential for renewed subsidence or clearer skies. Updated model runs and 48-hour observational trends will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:55 AM ET
Volume
$5,666End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Météo-France place Paris’s August 24 maximum near 25–27°C, with modest spread arising from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage. After mid-August heatwave conditions that produced several days above 29°C, models indicate a gradual cool-down driven by increased Atlantic influence and northerly flow, keeping values close to late-summer climatology. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25–27°C mirrors this narrow forecast envelope, while lower odds for 28°C+ reflect limited potential for renewed subsidence or clearer skies. Updated model runs and 48-hour observational trends will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,666End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Météo-France place Paris’s August 24 maximum near 25–27°C, with modest spread arising from uncertainties in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage. After mid-August heatwave conditions that produced several days above 29°C, models indicate a gradual cool-down driven by increased Atlantic influence and northerly flow, keeping values close to late-summer climatology. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 25–27°C mirrors this narrow forecast envelope, while lower odds for 28°C+ reflect limited potential for renewed subsidence or clearer skies. Updated model runs and 48-hour observational trends will further constrain the outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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