Short-term forecast models from global ensembles indicate Chengdu’s August 24 maximum will likely fall between 34–36 °C, driven by typical late-summer Sichuan basin conditions of high humidity, weak steering flow, and urban heat-island amplification. Ensemble spreads remain wide because of uncertainty in afternoon convective cloud cover and any scattered monsoon showers that could cap insolation and lower peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical climatology places late-August highs near 32–34 °C, yet recent model runs have trended warmer, splitting trader probabilities across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C bands. Updated regional guidance and next model cycles will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
35°C 27%
36°C 26%
34°C 22%
37°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
28°C or below
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
10%
34°C
22%
35°C
27%
36°C
26%
37°C
12%
38°C or higher
2%
35°C 27%
36°C 26%
34°C 22%
37°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
28°C or below
$145 Vol.
2%
29°C
$145 Vol.
2%
30°C
$145 Vol.
2%
31°C
$30 Vol.
2%
32°C
$273 Vol.
5%
33°C
$25 Vol.
10%
34°C
$74 Vol.
22%
35°C
$94 Vol.
27%
36°C
$333 Vol.
26%
37°C
$286 Vol.
12%
38°C or higher
$367 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast models from global ensembles indicate Chengdu’s August 24 maximum will likely fall between 34–36 °C, driven by typical late-summer Sichuan basin conditions of high humidity, weak steering flow, and urban heat-island amplification. Ensemble spreads remain wide because of uncertainty in afternoon convective cloud cover and any scattered monsoon showers that could cap insolation and lower peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical climatology places late-August highs near 32–34 °C, yet recent model runs have trended warmer, splitting trader probabilities across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C bands. Updated regional guidance and next model cycles will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,917End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast models from global ensembles indicate Chengdu’s August 24 maximum will likely fall between 34–36 °C, driven by typical late-summer Sichuan basin conditions of high humidity, weak steering flow, and urban heat-island amplification. Ensemble spreads remain wide because of uncertainty in afternoon convective cloud cover and any scattered monsoon showers that could cap insolation and lower peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical climatology places late-August highs near 32–34 °C, yet recent model runs have trended warmer, splitting trader probabilities across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C bands. Updated regional guidance and next model cycles will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,917End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast models from global ensembles indicate Chengdu’s August 24 maximum will likely fall between 34–36 °C, driven by typical late-summer Sichuan basin conditions of high humidity, weak steering flow, and urban heat-island amplification. Ensemble spreads remain wide because of uncertainty in afternoon convective cloud cover and any scattered monsoon showers that could cap insolation and lower peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical climatology places late-August highs near 32–34 °C, yet recent model runs have trended warmer, splitting trader probabilities across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C bands. Updated regional guidance and next model cycles will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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