Current ensemble forecasts for Chengdu on August 24, 2026, favor overnight lows near 24–26°C, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around 25°C (48%) and 26°C (40%). Persistent high humidity, frequent cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon, and scattered showers or thunderstorms limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while calm winds and urban heat retention prevent sharper drops. Typical August climatology shows average lows of 22–26°C with minimal day-to-day variability this late in the season. Model consensus on minimal frontal influence or clear-sky radiational cooling supports the tight range, though any unexpected clearing or stronger convection could shift outcomes toward the lower-probability 22–23°C or 27°C bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
20°C or below 70%
30°C or higher 70%
25°C 49%
21°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
20°C or below
70%
21°C
40%
22°C
35%
23°C
25%
24°C
30%
25°C
49%
26°C
39%
27°C
35%
28°C
5%
29°C
8%
30°C or higher
70%
20°C or below 70%
30°C or higher 70%
25°C 49%
21°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
70%
21°C
$5 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
35%
23°C
$0 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
30%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C
$0 Vol.
35%
28°C
$5 Vol.
5%
29°C
$5 Vol.
8%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Chengdu on August 24, 2026, favor overnight lows near 24–26°C, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around 25°C (48%) and 26°C (40%). Persistent high humidity, frequent cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon, and scattered showers or thunderstorms limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while calm winds and urban heat retention prevent sharper drops. Typical August climatology shows average lows of 22–26°C with minimal day-to-day variability this late in the season. Model consensus on minimal frontal influence or clear-sky radiational cooling supports the tight range, though any unexpected clearing or stronger convection could shift outcomes toward the lower-probability 22–23°C or 27°C bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Chengdu on August 24, 2026, favor overnight lows near 24–26°C, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around 25°C (48%) and 26°C (40%). Persistent high humidity, frequent cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon, and scattered showers or thunderstorms limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while calm winds and urban heat retention prevent sharper drops. Typical August climatology shows average lows of 22–26°C with minimal day-to-day variability this late in the season. Model consensus on minimal frontal influence or clear-sky radiational cooling supports the tight range, though any unexpected clearing or stronger convection could shift outcomes toward the lower-probability 22–23°C or 27°C bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts for Chengdu on August 24, 2026, favor overnight lows near 24–26°C, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around 25°C (48%) and 26°C (40%). Persistent high humidity, frequent cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon, and scattered showers or thunderstorms limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while calm winds and urban heat retention prevent sharper drops. Typical August climatology shows average lows of 22–26°C with minimal day-to-day variability this late in the season. Model consensus on minimal frontal influence or clear-sky radiational cooling supports the tight range, though any unexpected clearing or stronger convection could shift outcomes toward the lower-probability 22–23°C or 27°C bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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