Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies point to late-August conditions dominated by the North Pacific subtropical high, sustaining daytime highs near 32°C in Tokyo with limited cloud cover or frontal activity expected around the 24th. Urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure further elevate surface temperatures by 1–3°C above surrounding rural baselines, while elevated humidity amplifies perceived heat without altering the maximum reading. Recent seasonal outlooks confirming above-normal temperatures through August align with the market's tight clustering on 31–33°C outcomes, reflecting trader incorporation of ensemble guidance and historical late-summer analogs. Short-term model runs showing possible minor cooling from scattered showers could nudge probabilities toward the lower end of that range if realized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 24?
32°C 38%
33°C 26%
31°C 21%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
7%
31°C
21%
32°C
38%
33°C
26%
34°C
7%
35°C or higher
3%
32°C 38%
33°C 26%
31°C 21%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
$1,100 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$248 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$15 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$14 Vol.
4%
30°C
$97 Vol.
7%
31°C
$40 Vol.
21%
32°C
$56 Vol.
38%
33°C
$177 Vol.
26%
34°C
$376 Vol.
7%
35°C or higher
$98 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies point to late-August conditions dominated by the North Pacific subtropical high, sustaining daytime highs near 32°C in Tokyo with limited cloud cover or frontal activity expected around the 24th. Urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure further elevate surface temperatures by 1–3°C above surrounding rural baselines, while elevated humidity amplifies perceived heat without altering the maximum reading. Recent seasonal outlooks confirming above-normal temperatures through August align with the market's tight clustering on 31–33°C outcomes, reflecting trader incorporation of ensemble guidance and historical late-summer analogs. Short-term model runs showing possible minor cooling from scattered showers could nudge probabilities toward the lower end of that range if realized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,215End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies point to late-August conditions dominated by the North Pacific subtropical high, sustaining daytime highs near 32°C in Tokyo with limited cloud cover or frontal activity expected around the 24th. Urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure further elevate surface temperatures by 1–3°C above surrounding rural baselines, while elevated humidity amplifies perceived heat without altering the maximum reading. Recent seasonal outlooks confirming above-normal temperatures through August align with the market's tight clustering on 31–33°C outcomes, reflecting trader incorporation of ensemble guidance and historical late-summer analogs. Short-term model runs showing possible minor cooling from scattered showers could nudge probabilities toward the lower end of that range if realized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,215End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies point to late-August conditions dominated by the North Pacific subtropical high, sustaining daytime highs near 32°C in Tokyo with limited cloud cover or frontal activity expected around the 24th. Urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure further elevate surface temperatures by 1–3°C above surrounding rural baselines, while elevated humidity amplifies perceived heat without altering the maximum reading. Recent seasonal outlooks confirming above-normal temperatures through August align with the market's tight clustering on 31–33°C outcomes, reflecting trader incorporation of ensemble guidance and historical late-summer analogs. Short-term model runs showing possible minor cooling from scattered showers could nudge probabilities toward the lower end of that range if realized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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