Traders see a near-even split between 33°C and 34°C as Beijing’s likely peak temperature on August 24 because short-range ensemble forecasts place the maximum right at that boundary. Late-summer conditions over northern China, dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high, support daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s, while modest differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention create the small spread across model solutions. With the event only 48 hours away, forecasters expect only incremental adjustments from new observational data and updated runs, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around these two outcomes rather than shifting decisively higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 24?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 24?
33°C 28%
34°C 28%
32°C 17%
35°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
4%
32°C
17%
33°C
28%
34°C
28%
35°C
13%
36°C
5%
37°C or higher
4%
33°C 28%
34°C 28%
32°C 17%
35°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
27°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C
$8 Vol.
2%
31°C
$47 Vol.
4%
32°C
$5 Vol.
17%
33°C
$366 Vol.
28%
34°C
$242 Vol.
28%
35°C
$419 Vol.
13%
36°C
$262 Vol.
5%
37°C or higher
$12 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see a near-even split between 33°C and 34°C as Beijing’s likely peak temperature on August 24 because short-range ensemble forecasts place the maximum right at that boundary. Late-summer conditions over northern China, dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high, support daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s, while modest differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention create the small spread across model solutions. With the event only 48 hours away, forecasters expect only incremental adjustments from new observational data and updated runs, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around these two outcomes rather than shifting decisively higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,360End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see a near-even split between 33°C and 34°C as Beijing’s likely peak temperature on August 24 because short-range ensemble forecasts place the maximum right at that boundary. Late-summer conditions over northern China, dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high, support daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s, while modest differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention create the small spread across model solutions. With the event only 48 hours away, forecasters expect only incremental adjustments from new observational data and updated runs, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around these two outcomes rather than shifting decisively higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,360End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a near-even split between 33°C and 34°C as Beijing’s likely peak temperature on August 24 because short-range ensemble forecasts place the maximum right at that boundary. Late-summer conditions over northern China, dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high, support daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s, while modest differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention create the small spread across model solutions. With the event only 48 hours away, forecasters expect only incremental adjustments from new observational data and updated runs, keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around these two outcomes rather than shifting decisively higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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