Recent forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC Weather for Madrid on August 26 point to a daytime maximum near 28°C under sunny intervals and light winds, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities clustered at 28–30°C. Late-August cooling trends, driven by declining solar insolation and typical shifts toward more Atlantic-influenced air masses, support this range against the month's earlier peaks. AEMET seasonal guidance for a warmer-than-normal summer provides broader context but does not override short-range model consensus for this specific date. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting current ensemble guidance heavily while monitoring any late adjustments from updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
29°C 43%
30°C 27%
28°C 14%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
8%
28°C
19%
29°C
43%
30°C
27%
31°C
9%
32°C
8%
33°C
4%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
2%
29°C 43%
30°C 27%
28°C 14%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
26°C
$40 Vol.
6%
27°C
$0 Vol.
8%
28°C
$6 Vol.
19%
29°C
$16 Vol.
43%
30°C
$36 Vol.
27%
31°C
$0 Vol.
9%
32°C
$12 Vol.
8%
33°C
$5 Vol.
4%
34°C
$0 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC Weather for Madrid on August 26 point to a daytime maximum near 28°C under sunny intervals and light winds, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities clustered at 28–30°C. Late-August cooling trends, driven by declining solar insolation and typical shifts toward more Atlantic-influenced air masses, support this range against the month's earlier peaks. AEMET seasonal guidance for a warmer-than-normal summer provides broader context but does not override short-range model consensus for this specific date. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting current ensemble guidance heavily while monitoring any late adjustments from updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$120End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC Weather for Madrid on August 26 point to a daytime maximum near 28°C under sunny intervals and light winds, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities clustered at 28–30°C. Late-August cooling trends, driven by declining solar insolation and typical shifts toward more Atlantic-influenced air masses, support this range against the month's earlier peaks. AEMET seasonal guidance for a warmer-than-normal summer provides broader context but does not override short-range model consensus for this specific date. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting current ensemble guidance heavily while monitoring any late adjustments from updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$120End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC Weather for Madrid on August 26 point to a daytime maximum near 28°C under sunny intervals and light winds, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities clustered at 28–30°C. Late-August cooling trends, driven by declining solar insolation and typical shifts toward more Atlantic-influenced air masses, support this range against the month's earlier peaks. AEMET seasonal guidance for a warmer-than-normal summer provides broader context but does not override short-range model consensus for this specific date. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting current ensemble guidance heavily while monitoring any late adjustments from updated runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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