Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC indicate overnight lows of 15–16°C in Madrid on August 26, aligning with the closely matched market probabilities around 14–17°C outcomes. Clear skies and light winds under a typical late-summer high-pressure regime promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 28°C, while minor model disagreements on cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture create the observed spread favoring both sub-15°C and mid-teen scenarios. Historical August minima average near 16°C with low variability, though updated runs in the next 24–48 hours could shift implied odds as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
14°C or below 69%
19°C 48%
24°C or higher 47%
17°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
69%
15°C
25%
16°C
29%
17°C
30%
18°C
26%
19°C
48%
20°C
1%
21°C
23%
22°C
15%
23°C
15%
24°C or higher
47%
14°C or below 69%
19°C 48%
24°C or higher 47%
17°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
29%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
48%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
23%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$0 Vol.
15%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC indicate overnight lows of 15–16°C in Madrid on August 26, aligning with the closely matched market probabilities around 14–17°C outcomes. Clear skies and light winds under a typical late-summer high-pressure regime promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 28°C, while minor model disagreements on cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture create the observed spread favoring both sub-15°C and mid-teen scenarios. Historical August minima average near 16°C with low variability, though updated runs in the next 24–48 hours could shift implied odds as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC indicate overnight lows of 15–16°C in Madrid on August 26, aligning with the closely matched market probabilities around 14–17°C outcomes. Clear skies and light winds under a typical late-summer high-pressure regime promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 28°C, while minor model disagreements on cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture create the observed spread favoring both sub-15°C and mid-teen scenarios. Historical August minima average near 16°C with low variability, though updated runs in the next 24–48 hours could shift implied odds as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC indicate overnight lows of 15–16°C in Madrid on August 26, aligning with the closely matched market probabilities around 14–17°C outcomes. Clear skies and light winds under a typical late-summer high-pressure regime promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 28°C, while minor model disagreements on cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture create the observed spread favoring both sub-15°C and mid-teen scenarios. Historical August minima average near 16°C with low variability, though updated runs in the next 24–48 hours could shift implied odds as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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