Skip to main content
icon for Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?

Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?

icon for Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?

Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 22

Aug 23

104-105°F 56%

106-107°F 27%

102-103°F 13%

108-109°F 6%

Polymarket
NEW

104-105°F 56%

106-107°F 27%

102-103°F 13%

108-109°F 6%

Polymarket
NEW

95°F or below

$80 Vol.

<1%

96-97°F

$87 Vol.

1%

98-99°F

$26 Vol.

1%

100-101°F

$105 Vol.

4%

102-103°F

$594 Vol.

13%

104-105°F

$544 Vol.

56%

106-107°F

$264 Vol.

27%

108-109°F

$47 Vol.

6%

110-111°F

$22 Vol.

1%

112-113°F

$26 Vol.

1%

114°F or higher

$18 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position Austin's August 23 high near 103–105°F amid a persistent regional heatwave driven by a strong upper-level ridge. This consensus underpins the market's heaviest weighting on 104–105°F outcomes, as official point forecasts from NWS Austin/San Antonio and nearby guidance consistently project that range with heat indices exceeding 105°F. Minor model spread and potential early tropical moisture influences introduce limited downside risk to 102–103°F, while climatological August baselines and current atmospheric stability make extremes above 107°F less probable. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through resolution will refine these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,812
End Date
Aug 23, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position Austin's August 23 high near 103–105°F amid a persistent regional heatwave driven by a strong upper-level ridge. This consensus underpins the market's heaviest weighting on 104–105°F outcomes, as official point forecasts from NWS Austin/San Antonio and nearby guidance consistently project that range with heat indices exceeding 105°F. Minor model spread and potential early tropical moisture influences introduce limited downside risk to 102–103°F, while climatological August baselines and current atmospheric stability make extremes above 107°F less probable. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through resolution will refine these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,812
End Date
Aug 23, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

icon for Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on August 23?

Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on August 23?

35%
icon for Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 22?

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 22?

69%
icon for Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on August 22?

Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on August 22?

98%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "104-105°F" at 56%, followed by "106-107°F" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?" is "104-105°F" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "106-107°F" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.