Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and European guidance indicates Madrid highs on August 25 will likely peak near 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies, southwesterly flow, and modest moisture, following a sharp cooldown from 33°C on August 23 and possible showers on the 24th. This cooler pattern relative to the late-August climatological average of ~31°C stems from an incoming Atlantic trough that has suppressed daytime heating and increased cloud cover. Market-implied odds favoring 28°C reflect trader weighting of ensemble means and recent model runs that keep temperatures in the upper 20s, with limited upside risk unless models trend warmer before resolution. Updated official AEMET guidance and next model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
28°C 44%
29°C 28%
27°C 18%
30°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
7%
27°C
18%
28°C
44%
29°C
28%
30°C
9%
31°C
3%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
28°C 44%
29°C 28%
27°C 18%
30°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
$70 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
7%
27°C
$32 Vol.
18%
28°C
$72 Vol.
44%
29°C
$87 Vol.
28%
30°C
$12 Vol.
9%
31°C
$20 Vol.
3%
32°C
$4 Vol.
3%
33°C
$5 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$30 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and European guidance indicates Madrid highs on August 25 will likely peak near 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies, southwesterly flow, and modest moisture, following a sharp cooldown from 33°C on August 23 and possible showers on the 24th. This cooler pattern relative to the late-August climatological average of ~31°C stems from an incoming Atlantic trough that has suppressed daytime heating and increased cloud cover. Market-implied odds favoring 28°C reflect trader weighting of ensemble means and recent model runs that keep temperatures in the upper 20s, with limited upside risk unless models trend warmer before resolution. Updated official AEMET guidance and next model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$334End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and European guidance indicates Madrid highs on August 25 will likely peak near 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies, southwesterly flow, and modest moisture, following a sharp cooldown from 33°C on August 23 and possible showers on the 24th. This cooler pattern relative to the late-August climatological average of ~31°C stems from an incoming Atlantic trough that has suppressed daytime heating and increased cloud cover. Market-implied odds favoring 28°C reflect trader weighting of ensemble means and recent model runs that keep temperatures in the upper 20s, with limited upside risk unless models trend warmer before resolution. Updated official AEMET guidance and next model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$334End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS and European guidance indicates Madrid highs on August 25 will likely peak near 26–28°C under partly cloudy skies, southwesterly flow, and modest moisture, following a sharp cooldown from 33°C on August 23 and possible showers on the 24th. This cooler pattern relative to the late-August climatological average of ~31°C stems from an incoming Atlantic trough that has suppressed daytime heating and increased cloud cover. Market-implied odds favoring 28°C reflect trader weighting of ensemble means and recent model runs that keep temperatures in the upper 20s, with limited upside risk unless models trend warmer before resolution. Updated official AEMET guidance and next model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions