Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC and timeanddate.com point to a peak temperature near 35–36°C in Chengdu on August 25, driven by the region's subtropical monsoon climate, high humidity around 60%, and light easterly winds that limit cooling. Subtle differences in model runs—such as scattered cloud cover versus clearer skies or brief thundery showers—account for the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 35–37°C, as these factors can shift afternoon maxima by 1–2°C. Historical late-August averages hover near 30–32°C, but recent heat episodes have pushed readings higher, underscoring the role of urban heat retention and variable precipitation in creating genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of official China Meteorological Administration data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
36°C 29%
35°C 23%
37°C 20%
34°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
5%
34°C
13%
35°C
23%
36°C
29%
37°C
20%
38°C
12%
39°C
6%
40°C or higher
6%
36°C 29%
35°C 23%
37°C 20%
34°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
$30 Vol.
4%
31°C
$10 Vol.
2%
32°C
$20 Vol.
5%
33°C
$22 Vol.
5%
34°C
$0 Vol.
13%
35°C
$8 Vol.
23%
36°C
$32 Vol.
29%
37°C
$23 Vol.
20%
38°C
$60 Vol.
12%
39°C
$75 Vol.
6%
40°C or higher
$5 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC and timeanddate.com point to a peak temperature near 35–36°C in Chengdu on August 25, driven by the region's subtropical monsoon climate, high humidity around 60%, and light easterly winds that limit cooling. Subtle differences in model runs—such as scattered cloud cover versus clearer skies or brief thundery showers—account for the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 35–37°C, as these factors can shift afternoon maxima by 1–2°C. Historical late-August averages hover near 30–32°C, but recent heat episodes have pushed readings higher, underscoring the role of urban heat retention and variable precipitation in creating genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of official China Meteorological Administration data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$285End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC and timeanddate.com point to a peak temperature near 35–36°C in Chengdu on August 25, driven by the region's subtropical monsoon climate, high humidity around 60%, and light easterly winds that limit cooling. Subtle differences in model runs—such as scattered cloud cover versus clearer skies or brief thundery showers—account for the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 35–37°C, as these factors can shift afternoon maxima by 1–2°C. Historical late-August averages hover near 30–32°C, but recent heat episodes have pushed readings higher, underscoring the role of urban heat retention and variable precipitation in creating genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of official China Meteorological Administration data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$285End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC and timeanddate.com point to a peak temperature near 35–36°C in Chengdu on August 25, driven by the region's subtropical monsoon climate, high humidity around 60%, and light easterly winds that limit cooling. Subtle differences in model runs—such as scattered cloud cover versus clearer skies or brief thundery showers—account for the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 35–37°C, as these factors can shift afternoon maxima by 1–2°C. Historical late-August averages hover near 30–32°C, but recent heat episodes have pushed readings higher, underscoring the role of urban heat retention and variable precipitation in creating genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of official China Meteorological Administration data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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