Late-summer atmospheric conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, with a stable warm air mass and minimal synoptic forcing, are anchoring trader expectations for Istanbul's August 25 maximum near 27–29°C. Ensemble forecasts from global models indicate daily highs in this narrow band, consistent with August climatology of 28–30°C, while local factors such as Bosphorus sea breezes and variable afternoon cloud cover introduce enough uncertainty to keep adjacent outcomes competitive. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or cooling fronts in the 48-hour window, supporting the tight clustering around 28°C (46% implied probability) as the mode. Updated short-range guidance from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine exact maxima ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
28°C 44%
27°C 36%
29°C 26%
26°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
4%
24°C
6%
25°C
6%
26°C
15%
27°C
36%
28°C
44%
29°C
26%
30°C
9%
31°C
6%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
5%
28°C 44%
27°C 36%
29°C 26%
26°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
24°C
$5 Vol.
6%
25°C
$5 Vol.
6%
26°C
$0 Vol.
15%
27°C
$0 Vol.
36%
28°C
$10 Vol.
44%
29°C
$0 Vol.
26%
30°C
$0 Vol.
9%
31°C
$5 Vol.
6%
32°C
$4 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Late-summer atmospheric conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, with a stable warm air mass and minimal synoptic forcing, are anchoring trader expectations for Istanbul's August 25 maximum near 27–29°C. Ensemble forecasts from global models indicate daily highs in this narrow band, consistent with August climatology of 28–30°C, while local factors such as Bosphorus sea breezes and variable afternoon cloud cover introduce enough uncertainty to keep adjacent outcomes competitive. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or cooling fronts in the 48-hour window, supporting the tight clustering around 28°C (46% implied probability) as the mode. Updated short-range guidance from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine exact maxima ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$39End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Late-summer atmospheric conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, with a stable warm air mass and minimal synoptic forcing, are anchoring trader expectations for Istanbul's August 25 maximum near 27–29°C. Ensemble forecasts from global models indicate daily highs in this narrow band, consistent with August climatology of 28–30°C, while local factors such as Bosphorus sea breezes and variable afternoon cloud cover introduce enough uncertainty to keep adjacent outcomes competitive. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or cooling fronts in the 48-hour window, supporting the tight clustering around 28°C (46% implied probability) as the mode. Updated short-range guidance from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine exact maxima ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Late-summer atmospheric conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, with a stable warm air mass and minimal synoptic forcing, are anchoring trader expectations for Istanbul's August 25 maximum near 27–29°C. Ensemble forecasts from global models indicate daily highs in this narrow band, consistent with August climatology of 28–30°C, while local factors such as Bosphorus sea breezes and variable afternoon cloud cover introduce enough uncertainty to keep adjacent outcomes competitive. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or cooling fronts in the 48-hour window, supporting the tight clustering around 28°C (46% implied probability) as the mode. Updated short-range guidance from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service will refine exact maxima ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions