Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions the August 24 maximum near 29–30°C under stable high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor moderate daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air masses. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 28°C and 29°C by reflecting typical late-August climatology for Istanbul, where diurnal ranges and sea-breeze moderation often cap peaks below seasonal extremes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds introduces uncertainty between 28–31°C outcomes, with final resolution depending on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations rather than preliminary forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 24?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 24?
28°C 52%
29°C 22%
27°C 20%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
5%
27°C
20%
28°C
52%
29°C
22%
30°C
6%
31°C
3%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
3%
28°C 52%
29°C 22%
27°C 20%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
24°C
$5 Vol.
2%
25°C
$171 Vol.
2%
26°C
$118 Vol.
5%
27°C
$399 Vol.
20%
28°C
$416 Vol.
52%
29°C
$144 Vol.
22%
30°C
$128 Vol.
6%
31°C
$66 Vol.
3%
32°C
$5 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions the August 24 maximum near 29–30°C under stable high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor moderate daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air masses. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 28°C and 29°C by reflecting typical late-August climatology for Istanbul, where diurnal ranges and sea-breeze moderation often cap peaks below seasonal extremes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds introduces uncertainty between 28–31°C outcomes, with final resolution depending on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations rather than preliminary forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,463End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions the August 24 maximum near 29–30°C under stable high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor moderate daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air masses. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 28°C and 29°C by reflecting typical late-August climatology for Istanbul, where diurnal ranges and sea-breeze moderation often cap peaks below seasonal extremes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds introduces uncertainty between 28–31°C outcomes, with final resolution depending on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations rather than preliminary forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,463End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions the August 24 maximum near 29–30°C under stable high pressure, northeasterly flow, and mostly clear skies that favor moderate daytime heating without significant advection of warmer air masses. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 28°C and 29°C by reflecting typical late-August climatology for Istanbul, where diurnal ranges and sea-breeze moderation often cap peaks below seasonal extremes. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds introduces uncertainty between 28–31°C outcomes, with final resolution depending on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations rather than preliminary forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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