Persistent late-summer heat under the western Pacific subtropical high is anchoring trader expectations for Wuhan's August 25 maximum near 36–37 °C, with the two leading brackets nearly tied. Recent model consensus and the prior day's observed 35 °C peak illustrate how daytime radiative heating, modulated by variable cloud cover and Yangtze basin humidity, typically produces a narrow distribution in this climatological window. Slight differences in forecast timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer moisture can shift the daily high by 1 °C, explaining the close 36 % versus 34.5 % split; lower-probability tails beyond 38 °C would require stronger subsidence or clearer skies than current guidance indicates. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours remain the key catalyst for further market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on August 25?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 25?
37°C 36%
36°C 35%
38°C 20%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C
3%
34°C
5%
35°C
14%
36°C
35%
37°C
36%
38°C
20%
39°C
5%
40°C or higher
4%
37°C 36%
36°C 35%
38°C 20%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C
$5 Vol.
2%
32°C
$5 Vol.
2%
33°C
$0 Vol.
3%
34°C
$0 Vol.
5%
35°C
$5 Vol.
14%
36°C
$4 Vol.
35%
37°C
$44 Vol.
36%
38°C
$11 Vol.
20%
39°C
$15 Vol.
5%
40°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer heat under the western Pacific subtropical high is anchoring trader expectations for Wuhan's August 25 maximum near 36–37 °C, with the two leading brackets nearly tied. Recent model consensus and the prior day's observed 35 °C peak illustrate how daytime radiative heating, modulated by variable cloud cover and Yangtze basin humidity, typically produces a narrow distribution in this climatological window. Slight differences in forecast timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer moisture can shift the daily high by 1 °C, explaining the close 36 % versus 34.5 % split; lower-probability tails beyond 38 °C would require stronger subsidence or clearer skies than current guidance indicates. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours remain the key catalyst for further market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$94End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer heat under the western Pacific subtropical high is anchoring trader expectations for Wuhan's August 25 maximum near 36–37 °C, with the two leading brackets nearly tied. Recent model consensus and the prior day's observed 35 °C peak illustrate how daytime radiative heating, modulated by variable cloud cover and Yangtze basin humidity, typically produces a narrow distribution in this climatological window. Slight differences in forecast timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer moisture can shift the daily high by 1 °C, explaining the close 36 % versus 34.5 % split; lower-probability tails beyond 38 °C would require stronger subsidence or clearer skies than current guidance indicates. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours remain the key catalyst for further market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$94End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent late-summer heat under the western Pacific subtropical high is anchoring trader expectations for Wuhan's August 25 maximum near 36–37 °C, with the two leading brackets nearly tied. Recent model consensus and the prior day's observed 35 °C peak illustrate how daytime radiative heating, modulated by variable cloud cover and Yangtze basin humidity, typically produces a narrow distribution in this climatological window. Slight differences in forecast timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer moisture can shift the daily high by 1 °C, explaining the close 36 % versus 34.5 % split; lower-probability tails beyond 38 °C would require stronger subsidence or clearer skies than current guidance indicates. Updated runs from global ensembles over the next 24 hours remain the key catalyst for further market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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