Recent short-range model guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies in the Sichuan Basin, supporting a minimum temperature near 24–25°C on August 25. Persistent summer moisture and weak steering flow limit sharp drops, while any late-day convection or increased cloud cover could suppress the low by 1–2°C; conversely, clearer breaks would favor readings closer to 26°C. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 22–26°C, placing current trader balance between sub-20°C scenarios (requiring stronger cooling than recent guidance) and 30°C-plus outcomes (demanding sustained heat advection atypical for the basin) in roughly equal contention amid model spread on boundary-layer moisture and wind. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
20°C or below 86%
30°C or higher 84%
21°C 50%
26°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
86%
21°C
50%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
28%
26°C
30%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
84%
20°C or below 86%
30°C or higher 84%
21°C 50%
26°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
86%
21°C
$5 Vol.
50%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
30%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies in the Sichuan Basin, supporting a minimum temperature near 24–25°C on August 25. Persistent summer moisture and weak steering flow limit sharp drops, while any late-day convection or increased cloud cover could suppress the low by 1–2°C; conversely, clearer breaks would favor readings closer to 26°C. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 22–26°C, placing current trader balance between sub-20°C scenarios (requiring stronger cooling than recent guidance) and 30°C-plus outcomes (demanding sustained heat advection atypical for the basin) in roughly equal contention amid model spread on boundary-layer moisture and wind. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies in the Sichuan Basin, supporting a minimum temperature near 24–25°C on August 25. Persistent summer moisture and weak steering flow limit sharp drops, while any late-day convection or increased cloud cover could suppress the low by 1–2°C; conversely, clearer breaks would favor readings closer to 26°C. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 22–26°C, placing current trader balance between sub-20°C scenarios (requiring stronger cooling than recent guidance) and 30°C-plus outcomes (demanding sustained heat advection atypical for the basin) in roughly equal contention amid model spread on boundary-layer moisture and wind. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies in the Sichuan Basin, supporting a minimum temperature near 24–25°C on August 25. Persistent summer moisture and weak steering flow limit sharp drops, while any late-day convection or increased cloud cover could suppress the low by 1–2°C; conversely, clearer breaks would favor readings closer to 26°C. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight minima of 22–26°C, placing current trader balance between sub-20°C scenarios (requiring stronger cooling than recent guidance) and 30°C-plus outcomes (demanding sustained heat advection atypical for the basin) in roughly equal contention amid model spread on boundary-layer moisture and wind. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions