Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF show ensemble spreads centered on daily maximum temperatures of 25–26°C for London on August 26, with the tightest clustering between those two outcomes driving the near-even market odds. Late-summer synoptic patterns, including a possible Atlantic ridge and light southeasterly flow, support modest warming above seasonal normals around 22°C, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in peak insolation and thus exact highs. Diurnal temperature ranges and urban heat-island effects further differentiate the 24–27°C band, with resolution hinging on official observations at sites such as Heathrow. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the probability distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on August 26?
Highest temperature in London on August 26?
25°C 28%
26°C 26%
27°C 15%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
8%
24°C
14%
25°C
28%
26°C
26%
27°C
15%
28°C
7%
29°C
4%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 28%
26°C 26%
27°C 15%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
23°C
$503 Vol.
8%
24°C
$362 Vol.
14%
25°C
$604 Vol.
28%
26°C
$609 Vol.
26%
27°C
$396 Vol.
15%
28°C
$71 Vol.
7%
29°C
$197 Vol.
4%
30°C
$8 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$440 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$440 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF show ensemble spreads centered on daily maximum temperatures of 25–26°C for London on August 26, with the tightest clustering between those two outcomes driving the near-even market odds. Late-summer synoptic patterns, including a possible Atlantic ridge and light southeasterly flow, support modest warming above seasonal normals around 22°C, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in peak insolation and thus exact highs. Diurnal temperature ranges and urban heat-island effects further differentiate the 24–27°C band, with resolution hinging on official observations at sites such as Heathrow. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the probability distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$3,634End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF show ensemble spreads centered on daily maximum temperatures of 25–26°C for London on August 26, with the tightest clustering between those two outcomes driving the near-even market odds. Late-summer synoptic patterns, including a possible Atlantic ridge and light southeasterly flow, support modest warming above seasonal normals around 22°C, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in peak insolation and thus exact highs. Diurnal temperature ranges and urban heat-island effects further differentiate the 24–27°C band, with resolution hinging on official observations at sites such as Heathrow. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the probability distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,634End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF show ensemble spreads centered on daily maximum temperatures of 25–26°C for London on August 26, with the tightest clustering between those two outcomes driving the near-even market odds. Late-summer synoptic patterns, including a possible Atlantic ridge and light southeasterly flow, support modest warming above seasonal normals around 22°C, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in peak insolation and thus exact highs. Diurnal temperature ranges and urban heat-island effects further differentiate the 24–27°C band, with resolution hinging on official observations at sites such as Heathrow. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the probability distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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