Strong meteorological consensus from models and agencies like Climatempo and regional services drove the 99% market-implied probability for a 16°C low in São Paulo on August 28, 2026. Clear skies under a warm, dry high-pressure system enabled efficient radiational cooling overnight, with hourly guidance showing a minimum near 17°C but official station readings aligning with the 16°C threshold amid the late-August heat wave that pushed daytime highs to 31°C. Historical climatology for the date supports lows typically between 12–17°C, and the absence of cloud cover or stronger winds reinforced trader confidence. Resolution hinges on NOAA or equivalent station data; an unexpected increase in humidity or wind could have nudged readings higher, though conditions remained stable through the night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
16°C 99%
14°C 2%
15°C 2%
12°C <1%
$2,155 Vol.
$2,155 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
99%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 99%
14°C 2%
15°C 2%
12°C <1%
$2,155 Vol.
$2,155 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
$55 Vol.
1%
11°C
$82 Vol.
1%
12°C
$257 Vol.
1%
13°C
$724 Vol.
1%
14°C
$64 Vol.
2%
15°C
$38 Vol.
2%
16°C
$414 Vol.
99%
17°C
$317 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$69 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$94 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong meteorological consensus from models and agencies like Climatempo and regional services drove the 99% market-implied probability for a 16°C low in São Paulo on August 28, 2026. Clear skies under a warm, dry high-pressure system enabled efficient radiational cooling overnight, with hourly guidance showing a minimum near 17°C but official station readings aligning with the 16°C threshold amid the late-August heat wave that pushed daytime highs to 31°C. Historical climatology for the date supports lows typically between 12–17°C, and the absence of cloud cover or stronger winds reinforced trader confidence. Resolution hinges on NOAA or equivalent station data; an unexpected increase in humidity or wind could have nudged readings higher, though conditions remained stable through the night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$2,155End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong meteorological consensus from models and agencies like Climatempo and regional services drove the 99% market-implied probability for a 16°C low in São Paulo on August 28, 2026. Clear skies under a warm, dry high-pressure system enabled efficient radiational cooling overnight, with hourly guidance showing a minimum near 17°C but official station readings aligning with the 16°C threshold amid the late-August heat wave that pushed daytime highs to 31°C. Historical climatology for the date supports lows typically between 12–17°C, and the absence of cloud cover or stronger winds reinforced trader confidence. Resolution hinges on NOAA or equivalent station data; an unexpected increase in humidity or wind could have nudged readings higher, though conditions remained stable through the night.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,155End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong meteorological consensus from models and agencies like Climatempo and regional services drove the 99% market-implied probability for a 16°C low in São Paulo on August 28, 2026. Clear skies under a warm, dry high-pressure system enabled efficient radiational cooling overnight, with hourly guidance showing a minimum near 17°C but official station readings aligning with the 16°C threshold amid the late-August heat wave that pushed daytime highs to 31°C. Historical climatology for the date supports lows typically between 12–17°C, and the absence of cloud cover or stronger winds reinforced trader confidence. Resolution hinges on NOAA or equivalent station data; an unexpected increase in humidity or wind could have nudged readings higher, though conditions remained stable through the night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions