**Forecast consensus from NWS, local models, and private services points to a high of 98–101°F in Austin on August 30, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with southerly winds of 5–10 mph and negligible rain chances.** This range aligns with the market’s leading outcomes (98–99°F at 41% and 100–101°F at 31%), reflecting trader assessment of current model runs showing a stable high-pressure pattern that favors temperatures several degrees above the late-August climatological average of ~95°F. Key drivers include ongoing heat advection from the south, minimal cloud cover, and dew points supporting high heat indices (near 105–108°F) without sufficient moisture for convective cooling. Recent days have featured similar conditions with observed highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, reinforcing the expectation that the pattern will persist through the weekend. Minor model spread exists around exact peak values, but the tight clustering of forecasts limits the probability of outcomes outside 96–103°F. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and any late shifts in steering flow or moisture could still adjust the final reading, particularly if unexpected boundary-layer mixing or brief cloud increases occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 30?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 30?
98-99°F 41%
100-101°F 31%
96-97°F 17%
102-103°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
5%
96-97°F
17%
98-99°F
41%
100-101°F
31%
102-103°F
8%
104-105°F
3%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 41%
100-101°F 31%
96-97°F 17%
102-103°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
89°F or below
$250 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$72 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$15 Vol.
3%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
5%
96-97°F
$17 Vol.
17%
98-99°F
$2,023 Vol.
41%
100-101°F
$207 Vol.
31%
102-103°F
$48 Vol.
8%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
3%
106-107°F
$41 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$57 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from NWS, local models, and private services points to a high of 98–101°F in Austin on August 30, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with southerly winds of 5–10 mph and negligible rain chances.** This range aligns with the market’s leading outcomes (98–99°F at 41% and 100–101°F at 31%), reflecting trader assessment of current model runs showing a stable high-pressure pattern that favors temperatures several degrees above the late-August climatological average of ~95°F.
Key drivers include ongoing heat advection from the south, minimal cloud cover, and dew points supporting high heat indices (near 105–108°F) without sufficient moisture for convective cooling. Recent days have featured similar conditions with observed highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, reinforcing the expectation that the pattern will persist through the weekend. Minor model spread exists around exact peak values, but the tight clustering of forecasts limits the probability of outcomes outside 96–103°F.
Upcoming National Weather Service updates and any late shifts in steering flow or moisture could still adjust the final reading, particularly if unexpected boundary-layer mixing or brief cloud increases occur.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,730End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from NWS, local models, and private services points to a high of 98–101°F in Austin on August 30, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with southerly winds of 5–10 mph and negligible rain chances.** This range aligns with the market’s leading outcomes (98–99°F at 41% and 100–101°F at 31%), reflecting trader assessment of current model runs showing a stable high-pressure pattern that favors temperatures several degrees above the late-August climatological average of ~95°F.
Key drivers include ongoing heat advection from the south, minimal cloud cover, and dew points supporting high heat indices (near 105–108°F) without sufficient moisture for convective cooling. Recent days have featured similar conditions with observed highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, reinforcing the expectation that the pattern will persist through the weekend. Minor model spread exists around exact peak values, but the tight clustering of forecasts limits the probability of outcomes outside 96–103°F.
Upcoming National Weather Service updates and any late shifts in steering flow or moisture could still adjust the final reading, particularly if unexpected boundary-layer mixing or brief cloud increases occur.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,730End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from NWS, local models, and private services points to a high of 98–101°F in Austin on August 30, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with southerly winds of 5–10 mph and negligible rain chances.** This range aligns with the market’s leading outcomes (98–99°F at 41% and 100–101°F at 31%), reflecting trader assessment of current model runs showing a stable high-pressure pattern that favors temperatures several degrees above the late-August climatological average of ~95°F. Key drivers include ongoing heat advection from the south, minimal cloud cover, and dew points supporting high heat indices (near 105–108°F) without sufficient moisture for convective cooling. Recent days have featured similar conditions with observed highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, reinforcing the expectation that the pattern will persist through the weekend. Minor model spread exists around exact peak values, but the tight clustering of forecasts limits the probability of outcomes outside 96–103°F. Upcoming National Weather Service updates and any late shifts in steering flow or moisture could still adjust the final reading, particularly if unexpected boundary-layer mixing or brief cloud increases occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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