**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance for Austin on August 29, 2026, indicate sunny, hot conditions with a daytime high near 100–101°F, aligning closely with the market’s leading 100-101°F outcome at 59.5% implied probability.** Recent observations show Austin Bergstrom recording 104°F on August 27 amid a multi-day heat wave, but subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge and lighter southerly winds are expected to moderate peak temperatures slightly while maintaining clear skies and minimal cloud cover that would otherwise limit insolation. Key drivers include persistent high pressure suppressing convective development (precipitation chances near 0–10%), dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s that support elevated heat indices near 107°F, and climatological context where late-August normals sit around 95°F yet recent departures have run 5–8°F above average. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in the upper 90s to low 100s, with low risk of exceeding 102°F or falling below 98°F given the stable pattern. Updated NWS point forecasts and short-range model runs through the evening of August 28 will provide the final observational anchor before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 29?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 29?
100-101°F 65%
98-99°F 37%
96-97°F 19%
104-105°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
4%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
19%
98-99°F
37%
100-101°F
65%
102-103°F
11%
104-105°F
19%
106-107°F
7%
108°F or higher
2%
100-101°F 65%
98-99°F 37%
96-97°F 19%
104-105°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
89°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
4%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
6%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
19%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
37%
100-101°F
$67 Vol.
65%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
11%
104-105°F
$14 Vol.
19%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
7%
108°F or higher
$20 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance for Austin on August 29, 2026, indicate sunny, hot conditions with a daytime high near 100–101°F, aligning closely with the market’s leading 100-101°F outcome at 59.5% implied probability.** Recent observations show Austin Bergstrom recording 104°F on August 27 amid a multi-day heat wave, but subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge and lighter southerly winds are expected to moderate peak temperatures slightly while maintaining clear skies and minimal cloud cover that would otherwise limit insolation.
Key drivers include persistent high pressure suppressing convective development (precipitation chances near 0–10%), dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s that support elevated heat indices near 107°F, and climatological context where late-August normals sit around 95°F yet recent departures have run 5–8°F above average. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in the upper 90s to low 100s, with low risk of exceeding 102°F or falling below 98°F given the stable pattern. Updated NWS point forecasts and short-range model runs through the evening of August 28 will provide the final observational anchor before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$101End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance for Austin on August 29, 2026, indicate sunny, hot conditions with a daytime high near 100–101°F, aligning closely with the market’s leading 100-101°F outcome at 59.5% implied probability.** Recent observations show Austin Bergstrom recording 104°F on August 27 amid a multi-day heat wave, but subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge and lighter southerly winds are expected to moderate peak temperatures slightly while maintaining clear skies and minimal cloud cover that would otherwise limit insolation.
Key drivers include persistent high pressure suppressing convective development (precipitation chances near 0–10%), dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s that support elevated heat indices near 107°F, and climatological context where late-August normals sit around 95°F yet recent departures have run 5–8°F above average. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in the upper 90s to low 100s, with low risk of exceeding 102°F or falling below 98°F given the stable pattern. Updated NWS point forecasts and short-range model runs through the evening of August 28 will provide the final observational anchor before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$101End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance for Austin on August 29, 2026, indicate sunny, hot conditions with a daytime high near 100–101°F, aligning closely with the market’s leading 100-101°F outcome at 59.5% implied probability.** Recent observations show Austin Bergstrom recording 104°F on August 27 amid a multi-day heat wave, but subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge and lighter southerly winds are expected to moderate peak temperatures slightly while maintaining clear skies and minimal cloud cover that would otherwise limit insolation. Key drivers include persistent high pressure suppressing convective development (precipitation chances near 0–10%), dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s that support elevated heat indices near 107°F, and climatological context where late-August normals sit around 95°F yet recent departures have run 5–8°F above average. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in the upper 90s to low 100s, with low risk of exceeding 102°F or falling below 98°F given the stable pattern. Updated NWS point forecasts and short-range model runs through the evening of August 28 will provide the final observational anchor before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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