**Forecast models and climatological data position a minimum temperature in the mid-50s as the dominant outcome for San Francisco on August 29, 2026.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and station observations indicate overnight lows near 55°F under partly cloudy skies with moderate west winds, consistent with the long-term average low of 56°F and recent days when minima reached 56–57°F. Marine-layer stratus and onshore flow typical for late August suppress radiative cooling, limiting the chance of readings dipping into the low 50s or below unless a stronger high-pressure ridge develops. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to the 56–57°F bin, while lower-probability cooler outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in the final hours before the daily minimum is recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
56-57°F 98%
49°F or below 63%
50-51°F 63%
54-55°F 48%
$1,358 Vol.
$1,358 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
63%
50-51°F
63%
52-53°F
26%
54-55°F
48%
56-57°F
75%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68°F or higher
<1%
56-57°F 98%
49°F or below 63%
50-51°F 63%
54-55°F 48%
$1,358 Vol.
$1,358 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
$82 Vol.
63%
50-51°F
$50 Vol.
63%
52-53°F
$51 Vol.
26%
54-55°F
$32 Vol.
48%
56-57°F
$290 Vol.
75%
58-59°F
$200 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$167 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$103 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$45 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$292 Vol.
<1%
68°F or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and climatological data position a minimum temperature in the mid-50s as the dominant outcome for San Francisco on August 29, 2026.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and station observations indicate overnight lows near 55°F under partly cloudy skies with moderate west winds, consistent with the long-term average low of 56°F and recent days when minima reached 56–57°F. Marine-layer stratus and onshore flow typical for late August suppress radiative cooling, limiting the chance of readings dipping into the low 50s or below unless a stronger high-pressure ridge develops. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to the 56–57°F bin, while lower-probability cooler outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in the final hours before the daily minimum is recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,358End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and climatological data position a minimum temperature in the mid-50s as the dominant outcome for San Francisco on August 29, 2026.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and station observations indicate overnight lows near 55°F under partly cloudy skies with moderate west winds, consistent with the long-term average low of 56°F and recent days when minima reached 56–57°F. Marine-layer stratus and onshore flow typical for late August suppress radiative cooling, limiting the chance of readings dipping into the low 50s or below unless a stronger high-pressure ridge develops. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to the 56–57°F bin, while lower-probability cooler outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in the final hours before the daily minimum is recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,358End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and climatological data position a minimum temperature in the mid-50s as the dominant outcome for San Francisco on August 29, 2026.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and station observations indicate overnight lows near 55°F under partly cloudy skies with moderate west winds, consistent with the long-term average low of 56°F and recent days when minima reached 56–57°F. Marine-layer stratus and onshore flow typical for late August suppress radiative cooling, limiting the chance of readings dipping into the low 50s or below unless a stronger high-pressure ridge develops. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to the 56–57°F bin, while lower-probability cooler outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in the final hours before the daily minimum is recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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