Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and major models points to persistent upper-level troughing and a strong marine layer keeping San Francisco highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s on August 31, several degrees below the late-August climatological average of roughly 70 °F. This setup favors the clustered mid-60s outcomes now carrying the bulk of trader attention, while the elevated 76 °F+ probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of brief warming if the trough weakens faster than expected. Onshore flow and cloud cover are expected to limit diurnal heating, consistent with recent cool anomalies observed through the weekend. Updated NWS briefings and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 31?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 31?
64-65°F 25%
66-67°F 23%
68-69°F 23%
70-71°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
15%
60-61°F
18%
62-63°F
13%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
23%
68-69°F
23%
70-71°F
20%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
16%
76°F or higher
17%
64-65°F 25%
66-67°F 23%
68-69°F 23%
70-71°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
57°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
15%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
18%
62-63°F
$6 Vol.
13%
64-65°F
$13 Vol.
25%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
23%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
23%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
20%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
20%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
16%
76°F or higher
$0 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and major models points to persistent upper-level troughing and a strong marine layer keeping San Francisco highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s on August 31, several degrees below the late-August climatological average of roughly 70 °F. This setup favors the clustered mid-60s outcomes now carrying the bulk of trader attention, while the elevated 76 °F+ probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of brief warming if the trough weakens faster than expected. Onshore flow and cloud cover are expected to limit diurnal heating, consistent with recent cool anomalies observed through the weekend. Updated NWS briefings and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$19End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and major models points to persistent upper-level troughing and a strong marine layer keeping San Francisco highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s on August 31, several degrees below the late-August climatological average of roughly 70 °F. This setup favors the clustered mid-60s outcomes now carrying the bulk of trader attention, while the elevated 76 °F+ probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of brief warming if the trough weakens faster than expected. Onshore flow and cloud cover are expected to limit diurnal heating, consistent with recent cool anomalies observed through the weekend. Updated NWS briefings and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and major models points to persistent upper-level troughing and a strong marine layer keeping San Francisco highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s on August 31, several degrees below the late-August climatological average of roughly 70 °F. This setup favors the clustered mid-60s outcomes now carrying the bulk of trader attention, while the elevated 76 °F+ probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of brief warming if the trough weakens faster than expected. Onshore flow and cloud cover are expected to limit diurnal heating, consistent with recent cool anomalies observed through the weekend. Updated NWS briefings and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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