Current ensemble forecasts from global models, including recent GFS and ECMWF runs, point to overnight lows near 12–14°C in Mexico City on August 31, consistent with late-August climatology at the city's 2,300 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity associated with the seasonal monsoon pattern are expected to limit radiative cooling and keep minimum temperatures close to seasonal norms of about 12°C. The elevated market-implied odds on 7°C or below likely reflect lingering uncertainty from earlier model spreads or tail-risk pricing, while the cluster of probabilities around 12–14°C aligns more closely with the latest observational trends and short-range guidance. Final model updates and CONAGUA briefings ahead of the date will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 31?
7°C or below 92%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
7°C or below
92%
8°C
46%
9°C
46%
10°C
49%
11°C
49%
12°C
25%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
49%
17°C or higher
47%
7°C or below 92%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
92%
8°C
$0 Vol.
46%
9°C
$0 Vol.
46%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models, including recent GFS and ECMWF runs, point to overnight lows near 12–14°C in Mexico City on August 31, consistent with late-August climatology at the city's 2,300 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity associated with the seasonal monsoon pattern are expected to limit radiative cooling and keep minimum temperatures close to seasonal norms of about 12°C. The elevated market-implied odds on 7°C or below likely reflect lingering uncertainty from earlier model spreads or tail-risk pricing, while the cluster of probabilities around 12–14°C aligns more closely with the latest observational trends and short-range guidance. Final model updates and CONAGUA briefings ahead of the date will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models, including recent GFS and ECMWF runs, point to overnight lows near 12–14°C in Mexico City on August 31, consistent with late-August climatology at the city's 2,300 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity associated with the seasonal monsoon pattern are expected to limit radiative cooling and keep minimum temperatures close to seasonal norms of about 12°C. The elevated market-implied odds on 7°C or below likely reflect lingering uncertainty from earlier model spreads or tail-risk pricing, while the cluster of probabilities around 12–14°C aligns more closely with the latest observational trends and short-range guidance. Final model updates and CONAGUA briefings ahead of the date will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global models, including recent GFS and ECMWF runs, point to overnight lows near 12–14°C in Mexico City on August 31, consistent with late-August climatology at the city's 2,300 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity associated with the seasonal monsoon pattern are expected to limit radiative cooling and keep minimum temperatures close to seasonal norms of about 12°C. The elevated market-implied odds on 7°C or below likely reflect lingering uncertainty from earlier model spreads or tail-risk pricing, while the cluster of probabilities around 12–14°C aligns more closely with the latest observational trends and short-range guidance. Final model updates and CONAGUA briefings ahead of the date will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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