Persistent Southwest Monsoon flow across Luzon, reinforced by a nearby low-pressure area east of northern Philippines, drives widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy rains, and strong southwesterly winds into Manila on August 29. These conditions sharply reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, suppressing the daily maximum below the long-term August average near 30 °C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble guidance currently favor a peak of 27–29 °C, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28 °C and 29 °C reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of convective bursts that can shave an additional degree or two from the high. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between monsoon-driven cooling and any brief breaks in cloud cover that could allow brief warming toward 30 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 29?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 29?
28°C 29%
29°C 28%
30°C 15%
27°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
5%
26°C
7%
27°C
15%
28°C
29%
29°C
28%
30°C
15%
31°C
5%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
4%
28°C 29%
29°C 28%
30°C 15%
27°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$63 Vol.
5%
26°C
$77 Vol.
7%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$17 Vol.
29%
29°C
$0 Vol.
28%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C
$47 Vol.
5%
32°C
$228 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$105 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent Southwest Monsoon flow across Luzon, reinforced by a nearby low-pressure area east of northern Philippines, drives widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy rains, and strong southwesterly winds into Manila on August 29. These conditions sharply reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, suppressing the daily maximum below the long-term August average near 30 °C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble guidance currently favor a peak of 27–29 °C, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28 °C and 29 °C reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of convective bursts that can shave an additional degree or two from the high. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between monsoon-driven cooling and any brief breaks in cloud cover that could allow brief warming toward 30 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$537End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent Southwest Monsoon flow across Luzon, reinforced by a nearby low-pressure area east of northern Philippines, drives widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy rains, and strong southwesterly winds into Manila on August 29. These conditions sharply reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, suppressing the daily maximum below the long-term August average near 30 °C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble guidance currently favor a peak of 27–29 °C, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28 °C and 29 °C reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of convective bursts that can shave an additional degree or two from the high. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between monsoon-driven cooling and any brief breaks in cloud cover that could allow brief warming toward 30 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$537End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Southwest Monsoon flow across Luzon, reinforced by a nearby low-pressure area east of northern Philippines, drives widespread cloud cover, scattered to heavy rains, and strong southwesterly winds into Manila on August 29. These conditions sharply reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, suppressing the daily maximum below the long-term August average near 30 °C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble guidance currently favor a peak of 27–29 °C, with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 28 °C and 29 °C reflecting uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of convective bursts that can shave an additional degree or two from the high. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between monsoon-driven cooling and any brief breaks in cloud cover that could allow brief warming toward 30 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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