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Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?

icon for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?

Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

31°C 29%

30°C 26%

32°C 15%

29°C 12%

Polymarket
NEW

31°C 29%

30°C 26%

32°C 15%

29°C 12%

Polymarket
NEW

27°C or below

$270 Vol.

1%

28°C

$309 Vol.

2%

29°C

$1,302 Vol.

12%

30°C

$1,398 Vol.

26%

31°C

$363 Vol.

29%

32°C

$1,028 Vol.

15%

33°C

$754 Vol.

7%

34°C

$1,133 Vol.

3%

35°C

$258 Vol.

3%

36°C

$1,149 Vol.

1%

37°C or higher

$423 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models show increasing cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms over Tokyo on August 27, 2026, following hotter conditions the prior day. These reduce solar insolation and introduce evaporative cooling, keeping the daily maximum near the 30–32°C range observed in recent late-August climatology. High humidity and light variable winds further moderate extremes by limiting boundary-layer mixing. Trader consensus around 30–31°C reflects tight model agreement on these factors, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers that would require clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Updated guidance ahead of peak heating hours will refine resolution thresholds.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt

If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,387
End Date
Aug 27, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models show increasing cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms over Tokyo on August 27, 2026, following hotter conditions the prior day. These reduce solar insolation and introduce evaporative cooling, keeping the daily maximum near the 30–32°C range observed in recent late-August climatology. High humidity and light variable winds further moderate extremes by limiting boundary-layer mixing. Trader consensus around 30–31°C reflects tight model agreement on these factors, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers that would require clearer skies or stronger subsidence. Updated guidance ahead of peak heating hours will refine resolution thresholds.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt

If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,387
End Date
Aug 27, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31°C" at 28%, followed by "30°C" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 25, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?" is "31°C" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30°C" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.