**Forecast consensus points to a Tokyo high of 30–32°C on August 28, with scattered showers and increased cloud cover expected to cap daytime heating.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models show a transition from recent clear, hot conditions (33–35°C) to a more humid, unstable pattern featuring 50% precipitation probability and southwesterly flow, which reduces solar insolation and promotes convective cooling. This setup aligns closely with late-August climatology near 30°C while introducing variability from shower timing and cloud thickness. Traders therefore assign balanced implied probabilities across adjacent bins, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise maximum rather than strong directional conviction. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
26°C or below 100%
27°C 100%
28°C 100%
29°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
100%
27°C
100%
28°C
100%
29°C
100%
30°C
100%
31°C
100%
32°C
100%
33°C
100%
34°C
100%
35°C
100%
36°C or higher
100%
26°C or below 100%
27°C 100%
28°C 100%
29°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
27°C
$0 Vol.
100%
28°C
$0 Vol.
100%
29°C
$0 Vol.
100%
30°C
$0 Vol.
100%
31°C
$0 Vol.
100%
32°C
$0 Vol.
100%
33°C
$0 Vol.
100%
34°C
$0 Vol.
100%
35°C
$0 Vol.
100%
36°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a Tokyo high of 30–32°C on August 28, with scattered showers and increased cloud cover expected to cap daytime heating.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models show a transition from recent clear, hot conditions (33–35°C) to a more humid, unstable pattern featuring 50% precipitation probability and southwesterly flow, which reduces solar insolation and promotes convective cooling. This setup aligns closely with late-August climatology near 30°C while introducing variability from shower timing and cloud thickness. Traders therefore assign balanced implied probabilities across adjacent bins, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise maximum rather than strong directional conviction. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a Tokyo high of 30–32°C on August 28, with scattered showers and increased cloud cover expected to cap daytime heating.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models show a transition from recent clear, hot conditions (33–35°C) to a more humid, unstable pattern featuring 50% precipitation probability and southwesterly flow, which reduces solar insolation and promotes convective cooling. This setup aligns closely with late-August climatology near 30°C while introducing variability from shower timing and cloud thickness. Traders therefore assign balanced implied probabilities across adjacent bins, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise maximum rather than strong directional conviction. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a Tokyo high of 30–32°C on August 28, with scattered showers and increased cloud cover expected to cap daytime heating.** Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models show a transition from recent clear, hot conditions (33–35°C) to a more humid, unstable pattern featuring 50% precipitation probability and southwesterly flow, which reduces solar insolation and promotes convective cooling. This setup aligns closely with late-August climatology near 30°C while introducing variability from shower timing and cloud thickness. Traders therefore assign balanced implied probabilities across adjacent bins, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise maximum rather than strong directional conviction. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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