Recent official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a mild winter day in Wellington driven by northerly winds advecting relatively warm air from the Tasman Sea, supporting a daytime maximum near 14–15 °C under mostly cloudy skies with showers. This aligns with the market’s strong 63 % implied probability for 15 °C and 21 % for 16 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited potential for significant warming or cooling. Historical climatology places the typical August high at 13–14 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with trader positioning ahead of the August 28 resolution. Updated model runs and any shifts in wind direction or cloud cover remain the key variables that could adjust these odds before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 28?
15°C 63%
16°C 21%
14°C 10%
17°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
10%
15°C
63%
16°C
21%
17°C
4%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
15°C 63%
16°C 21%
14°C 10%
17°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
$52 Vol.
1%
11°C
$5 Vol.
1%
12°C
$7 Vol.
1%
13°C
$79 Vol.
3%
14°C
$618 Vol.
10%
15°C
$191 Vol.
63%
16°C
$21 Vol.
21%
17°C
$114 Vol.
4%
18°C
$85 Vol.
2%
19°C
$54 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$41 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a mild winter day in Wellington driven by northerly winds advecting relatively warm air from the Tasman Sea, supporting a daytime maximum near 14–15 °C under mostly cloudy skies with showers. This aligns with the market’s strong 63 % implied probability for 15 °C and 21 % for 16 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited potential for significant warming or cooling. Historical climatology places the typical August high at 13–14 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with trader positioning ahead of the August 28 resolution. Updated model runs and any shifts in wind direction or cloud cover remain the key variables that could adjust these odds before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,267End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a mild winter day in Wellington driven by northerly winds advecting relatively warm air from the Tasman Sea, supporting a daytime maximum near 14–15 °C under mostly cloudy skies with showers. This aligns with the market’s strong 63 % implied probability for 15 °C and 21 % for 16 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited potential for significant warming or cooling. Historical climatology places the typical August high at 13–14 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with trader positioning ahead of the August 28 resolution. Updated model runs and any shifts in wind direction or cloud cover remain the key variables that could adjust these odds before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,267End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a mild winter day in Wellington driven by northerly winds advecting relatively warm air from the Tasman Sea, supporting a daytime maximum near 14–15 °C under mostly cloudy skies with showers. This aligns with the market’s strong 63 % implied probability for 15 °C and 21 % for 16 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited potential for significant warming or cooling. Historical climatology places the typical August high at 13–14 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with trader positioning ahead of the August 28 resolution. Updated model runs and any shifts in wind direction or cloud cover remain the key variables that could adjust these odds before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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