Recent forecasts from Brazilian meteorological services highlight a heat wave driven by a persistent mass of hot, dry air over central Brazil, producing clear skies, strong solar heating, and low humidity that supports rapid afternoon warming in São Paulo. Multiple model runs and agency outlooks converge on a daily maximum near 33°C, consistent with observed trends through late August and well above the month’s climatological average of roughly 22°C. This consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied probability for 33°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or station-specific measurement differences that keep the official high at or below 32°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
33°C 99.6%
34°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
$29,264 Vol.
$29,264 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
100%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 99.6%
34°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
$29,264 Vol.
$29,264 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
28°C or below
$1,728 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,780 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$924 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$836 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$7,021 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$3,855 Vol.
100%
34°C
$3,944 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$2,945 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,714 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$1,835 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$2,682 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Brazilian meteorological services highlight a heat wave driven by a persistent mass of hot, dry air over central Brazil, producing clear skies, strong solar heating, and low humidity that supports rapid afternoon warming in São Paulo. Multiple model runs and agency outlooks converge on a daily maximum near 33°C, consistent with observed trends through late August and well above the month’s climatological average of roughly 22°C. This consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied probability for 33°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or station-specific measurement differences that keep the official high at or below 32°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$29,264End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Brazilian meteorological services highlight a heat wave driven by a persistent mass of hot, dry air over central Brazil, producing clear skies, strong solar heating, and low humidity that supports rapid afternoon warming in São Paulo. Multiple model runs and agency outlooks converge on a daily maximum near 33°C, consistent with observed trends through late August and well above the month’s climatological average of roughly 22°C. This consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied probability for 33°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or station-specific measurement differences that keep the official high at or below 32°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29,264End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Brazilian meteorological services highlight a heat wave driven by a persistent mass of hot, dry air over central Brazil, producing clear skies, strong solar heating, and low humidity that supports rapid afternoon warming in São Paulo. Multiple model runs and agency outlooks converge on a daily maximum near 33°C, consistent with observed trends through late August and well above the month’s climatological average of roughly 22°C. This consensus underpins the near-certain market-implied probability for 33°C. A realistic challenge would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or station-specific measurement differences that keep the official high at or below 32°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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