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Precipitation in London in September?

icon for Precipitation in London in September?

Precipitation in London in September?

London

Seattle

Seoul

Oct 1

London

Seattle

Seoul

Oct 1

50-60mm 36%

80mm+ 25%

30-40mm 25%

60-70mm 24%

Polymarket
NEW

50-60mm 36%

80mm+ 25%

30-40mm 25%

60-70mm 24%

Polymarket
NEW

<30mm

$638 Vol.

8%

30-40mm

$38 Vol.

25%

40-50mm

$64 Vol.

19%

50-60mm

$20 Vol.

36%

60-70mm

$20 Vol.

24%

70-80mm

$41 Vol.

21%

80mm+

$20 Vol.

25%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Historical September precipitation in London averages 50–55 mm at Heathrow (1991–2020 normals), placing the 50–60 mm bin at the center of the distribution and explaining its 36% market lead.** Recent hot, dry UK summer conditions under a strengthening El Niño (Niño 3.4 already +2.4–2.6 °C) have favored below-average early-month rainfall, with Met Office and GFS guidance showing only light totals (a few mm) through the first week of September 2026 amid a changeable pattern of showers rather than prolonged wet spells. ENSO teleconnections and lingering high-pressure influences support near-normal monthly accumulation, though model spread and the potential for late-month Atlantic systems keep 30–40 mm and 80 mm+ outcomes competitive at 24% each. Traders are weighting the climatological mode most heavily while acknowledging forecast uncertainty this early in the period.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.

If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$841
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Historical September precipitation in London averages 50–55 mm at Heathrow (1991–2020 normals), placing the 50–60 mm bin at the center of the distribution and explaining its 36% market lead.** Recent hot, dry UK summer conditions under a strengthening El Niño (Niño 3.4 already +2.4–2.6 °C) have favored below-average early-month rainfall, with Met Office and GFS guidance showing only light totals (a few mm) through the first week of September 2026 amid a changeable pattern of showers rather than prolonged wet spells. ENSO teleconnections and lingering high-pressure influences support near-normal monthly accumulation, though model spread and the potential for late-month Atlantic systems keep 30–40 mm and 80 mm+ outcomes competitive at 24% each. Traders are weighting the climatological mode most heavily while acknowledging forecast uncertainty this early in the period.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released.

If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$841
End Date
Oct 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in September, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for September 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of September 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Precipitation in London in September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "50-60mm" at 36%, followed by "30-40mm" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Precipitation in London in September?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Precipitation in London in September?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Precipitation in London in September?" is "50-60mm" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30-40mm" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Precipitation in London in September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.