Strong El Niño conditions, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures exceeding +2°C and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event by fall 2026, represent the dominant influence on trader sentiment for NYC September precipitation. This pattern typically elevates wind shear across the Atlantic, supporting NOAA’s below-normal hurricane outlook and limiting tropical moisture contributions that could push totals above 6 inches. At the same time, variable frontal activity and early-month shower potential introduce uncertainty, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 19% and 22% for the 2–6+ inch bins around the 4.3-inch climatological average. Upcoming model updates from the Climate Prediction Center will likely refine these probabilities as September evolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in NYC in September?
Precipitation in NYC in September?
>6" 22%
3-4" 20%
2-3" 19%
4-5" 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<2"
13%
2-3"
19%
3-4"
20%
4-5"
19%
5-6"
15%
>6"
22%
>6" 22%
3-4" 20%
2-3" 19%
4-5" 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<2"
$577 Vol.
13%
2-3"
$0 Vol.
19%
3-4"
$50 Vol.
20%
4-5"
$0 Vol.
19%
5-6"
$20 Vol.
15%
>6"
$60 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures exceeding +2°C and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event by fall 2026, represent the dominant influence on trader sentiment for NYC September precipitation. This pattern typically elevates wind shear across the Atlantic, supporting NOAA’s below-normal hurricane outlook and limiting tropical moisture contributions that could push totals above 6 inches. At the same time, variable frontal activity and early-month shower potential introduce uncertainty, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 19% and 22% for the 2–6+ inch bins around the 4.3-inch climatological average. Upcoming model updates from the Climate Prediction Center will likely refine these probabilities as September evolves.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:44 AM ET
Volume
$707End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures exceeding +2°C and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event by fall 2026, represent the dominant influence on trader sentiment for NYC September precipitation. This pattern typically elevates wind shear across the Atlantic, supporting NOAA’s below-normal hurricane outlook and limiting tropical moisture contributions that could push totals above 6 inches. At the same time, variable frontal activity and early-month shower potential introduce uncertainty, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 19% and 22% for the 2–6+ inch bins around the 4.3-inch climatological average. Upcoming model updates from the Climate Prediction Center will likely refine these probabilities as September evolves.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$707End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures exceeding +2°C and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event by fall 2026, represent the dominant influence on trader sentiment for NYC September precipitation. This pattern typically elevates wind shear across the Atlantic, supporting NOAA’s below-normal hurricane outlook and limiting tropical moisture contributions that could push totals above 6 inches. At the same time, variable frontal activity and early-month shower potential introduce uncertainty, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 19% and 22% for the 2–6+ inch bins around the 4.3-inch climatological average. Upcoming model updates from the Climate Prediction Center will likely refine these probabilities as September evolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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