Recent Global Carbon Project data and the November 2025 UNEP Emissions Gap Report show fossil CO2 emissions holding near record highs of ~42 GtCO2 annually with only marginal projected growth in 2025, leaving the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget (roughly 130 GtCO2 at the start of 2026 per updated assessments) largely unchanged from prior Mercator Research Institute calculations that underpin the climateclock.world deadline. The clock’s last major revision occurred in late 2023, shifting the projected date to December 2030; subsequent minor adjustments reflect steady emission trends rather than abrupt budget revisions. With no major IPCC carbon budget update scheduled before late 2026 and emission trajectories aligning closely with the assumed annual rate, trader consensus assigns a 61.5% implied probability that the displayed 1.5°C deadline will remain stable through year-end. New observational data releases or model refinements in the coming months represent the main variables that could alter this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
39% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
39% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent Global Carbon Project data and the November 2025 UNEP Emissions Gap Report show fossil CO2 emissions holding near record highs of ~42 GtCO2 annually with only marginal projected growth in 2025, leaving the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget (roughly 130 GtCO2 at the start of 2026 per updated assessments) largely unchanged from prior Mercator Research Institute calculations that underpin the climateclock.world deadline. The clock’s last major revision occurred in late 2023, shifting the projected date to December 2030; subsequent minor adjustments reflect steady emission trends rather than abrupt budget revisions. With no major IPCC carbon budget update scheduled before late 2026 and emission trajectories aligning closely with the assumed annual rate, trader consensus assigns a 61.5% implied probability that the displayed 1.5°C deadline will remain stable through year-end. New observational data releases or model refinements in the coming months represent the main variables that could alter this assessment.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$2,043End Date
Dec 31, 2029Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent Global Carbon Project data and the November 2025 UNEP Emissions Gap Report show fossil CO2 emissions holding near record highs of ~42 GtCO2 annually with only marginal projected growth in 2025, leaving the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget (roughly 130 GtCO2 at the start of 2026 per updated assessments) largely unchanged from prior Mercator Research Institute calculations that underpin the climateclock.world deadline. The clock’s last major revision occurred in late 2023, shifting the projected date to December 2030; subsequent minor adjustments reflect steady emission trends rather than abrupt budget revisions. With no major IPCC carbon budget update scheduled before late 2026 and emission trajectories aligning closely with the assumed annual rate, trader consensus assigns a 61.5% implied probability that the displayed 1.5°C deadline will remain stable through year-end. New observational data releases or model refinements in the coming months represent the main variables that could alter this assessment.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$2,043End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Global Carbon Project data and the November 2025 UNEP Emissions Gap Report show fossil CO2 emissions holding near record highs of ~42 GtCO2 annually with only marginal projected growth in 2025, leaving the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget (roughly 130 GtCO2 at the start of 2026 per updated assessments) largely unchanged from prior Mercator Research Institute calculations that underpin the climateclock.world deadline. The clock’s last major revision occurred in late 2023, shifting the projected date to December 2030; subsequent minor adjustments reflect steady emission trends rather than abrupt budget revisions. With no major IPCC carbon budget update scheduled before late 2026 and emission trajectories aligning closely with the assumed annual rate, trader consensus assigns a 61.5% implied probability that the displayed 1.5°C deadline will remain stable through year-end. New observational data releases or model refinements in the coming months represent the main variables that could alter this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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