Forecast models indicate cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms across Shanghai on September 2, driven by persistent easterly flow and elevated moisture, which limit solar heating and compress the diurnal temperature range. This setup favors a daily maximum near 28–30 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds for those outcomes. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns and precipitable water values that suppress afternoon peaks relative to clearer conditions seen earlier in the week. Historical September climatology in the region places average highs around 29 °C, providing context for why traders assign low probability to extremes above 31 °C or below 27 °C. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or ensemble forecasts expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine these probabilities before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 2?
29°C 38%
30°C 37%
28°C 16%
31°C 8%
NEW
$43,149 Vol.
NEW
$43,149 Vol.
Sep 2, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
5%
28°C
16%
29°C
38%
30°C
37%
31°C
8%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 38%
30°C 37%
28°C 16%
31°C 8%
NEW
$43,149 Vol.
NEW
$43,149 Vol.
Sep 2, 2026
25°C or below
$4,932 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,635 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,037 Vol.
5%
28°C
$6,326 Vol.
16%
29°C
$8,386 Vol.
38%
30°C
$7,473 Vol.
37%
31°C
$6,768 Vol.
8%
32°C
$1,454 Vol.
2%
33°C
$1,328 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$378 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$432 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models indicate cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms across Shanghai on September 2, driven by persistent easterly flow and elevated moisture, which limit solar heating and compress the diurnal temperature range. This setup favors a daily maximum near 28–30 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds for those outcomes. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns and precipitable water values that suppress afternoon peaks relative to clearer conditions seen earlier in the week. Historical September climatology in the region places average highs around 29 °C, providing context for why traders assign low probability to extremes above 31 °C or below 27 °C. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or ensemble forecasts expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine these probabilities before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$43,149End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models indicate cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms across Shanghai on September 2, driven by persistent easterly flow and elevated moisture, which limit solar heating and compress the diurnal temperature range. This setup favors a daily maximum near 28–30 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds for those outcomes. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns and precipitable water values that suppress afternoon peaks relative to clearer conditions seen earlier in the week. Historical September climatology in the region places average highs around 29 °C, providing context for why traders assign low probability to extremes above 31 °C or below 27 °C. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or ensemble forecasts expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine these probabilities before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$43,149End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models indicate cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms across Shanghai on September 2, driven by persistent easterly flow and elevated moisture, which limit solar heating and compress the diurnal temperature range. This setup favors a daily maximum near 28–30 °C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds for those outcomes. Recent model runs show consistent steering patterns and precipitable water values that suppress afternoon peaks relative to clearer conditions seen earlier in the week. Historical September climatology in the region places average highs around 29 °C, providing context for why traders assign low probability to extremes above 31 °C or below 27 °C. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or ensemble forecasts expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine these probabilities before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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