Current National Weather Service and private model guidance for Chicago on September 3 points to a warm, humid air mass with overnight lows likely in the mid-70s, supported by persistent southerly flow, scattered thunderstorm activity, and limited radiational cooling under cloudy skies. This setup keeps the 67°F-or-below outcome at 32.5% while spreading probability across 70–83°F bins, as small differences in storm timing, wind shifts, or cloud cover can alter the minimum by several degrees. Historical September averages near 63°F underscore how anomalous the current warmth is, yet traders weigh the potential for model consensus to shift cooler with the next forecast cycle before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 3?
67°F or below 63%
86°F or higher 39%
74-75°F 26%
76-77°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
67°F or below
63%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
26%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
20%
86°F or higher
39%
67°F or below 63%
86°F or higher 39%
74-75°F 26%
76-77°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
67°F or below
$20 Vol.
63%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
11%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
25%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
26%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
26%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
26%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
25%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
20%
86°F or higher
$10 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and private model guidance for Chicago on September 3 points to a warm, humid air mass with overnight lows likely in the mid-70s, supported by persistent southerly flow, scattered thunderstorm activity, and limited radiational cooling under cloudy skies. This setup keeps the 67°F-or-below outcome at 32.5% while spreading probability across 70–83°F bins, as small differences in storm timing, wind shifts, or cloud cover can alter the minimum by several degrees. Historical September averages near 63°F underscore how anomalous the current warmth is, yet traders weigh the potential for model consensus to shift cooler with the next forecast cycle before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and private model guidance for Chicago on September 3 points to a warm, humid air mass with overnight lows likely in the mid-70s, supported by persistent southerly flow, scattered thunderstorm activity, and limited radiational cooling under cloudy skies. This setup keeps the 67°F-or-below outcome at 32.5% while spreading probability across 70–83°F bins, as small differences in storm timing, wind shifts, or cloud cover can alter the minimum by several degrees. Historical September averages near 63°F underscore how anomalous the current warmth is, yet traders weigh the potential for model consensus to shift cooler with the next forecast cycle before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and private model guidance for Chicago on September 3 points to a warm, humid air mass with overnight lows likely in the mid-70s, supported by persistent southerly flow, scattered thunderstorm activity, and limited radiational cooling under cloudy skies. This setup keeps the 67°F-or-below outcome at 32.5% while spreading probability across 70–83°F bins, as small differences in storm timing, wind shifts, or cloud cover can alter the minimum by several degrees. Historical September averages near 63°F underscore how anomalous the current warmth is, yet traders weigh the potential for model consensus to shift cooler with the next forecast cycle before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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