Persistent heat and humidity from a strengthening heat dome have driven trader sentiment toward elevated overnight lows for Chicago on September 2, with model consensus from NOAA and other sources pointing to minimum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s°F amid southerly flow and high dew points that limit radiative cooling. Recent NWS guidance highlights heat indices near 100°F during the day, with partly cloudy conditions and a 40-50% thunderstorm chance after midnight potentially moderating the low by a few degrees depending on timing and cloud cover. Historical September 2 averages near 64°F underscore the anomaly, while short-term variability in wind shifts or clearer skies could differentiate the tightly matched bins around 76-81°F versus cooler or warmer thresholds. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key catalyst for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 2?
67°F or below 100%
68-69°F 100%
70-71°F 100%
72-73°F 100%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
67°F or below
100%
68-69°F
100%
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
100%
74-75°F
100%
76-77°F
100%
78-79°F
100%
80-81°F
100%
82-83°F
100%
84-85°F
100%
86°F or higher
100%
67°F or below 100%
68-69°F 100%
70-71°F 100%
72-73°F 100%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
100%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
100%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
100%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
100%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
100%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
100%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
100%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
100%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
100%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
100%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat and humidity from a strengthening heat dome have driven trader sentiment toward elevated overnight lows for Chicago on September 2, with model consensus from NOAA and other sources pointing to minimum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s°F amid southerly flow and high dew points that limit radiative cooling. Recent NWS guidance highlights heat indices near 100°F during the day, with partly cloudy conditions and a 40-50% thunderstorm chance after midnight potentially moderating the low by a few degrees depending on timing and cloud cover. Historical September 2 averages near 64°F underscore the anomaly, while short-term variability in wind shifts or clearer skies could differentiate the tightly matched bins around 76-81°F versus cooler or warmer thresholds. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat and humidity from a strengthening heat dome have driven trader sentiment toward elevated overnight lows for Chicago on September 2, with model consensus from NOAA and other sources pointing to minimum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s°F amid southerly flow and high dew points that limit radiative cooling. Recent NWS guidance highlights heat indices near 100°F during the day, with partly cloudy conditions and a 40-50% thunderstorm chance after midnight potentially moderating the low by a few degrees depending on timing and cloud cover. Historical September 2 averages near 64°F underscore the anomaly, while short-term variability in wind shifts or clearer skies could differentiate the tightly matched bins around 76-81°F versus cooler or warmer thresholds. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heat and humidity from a strengthening heat dome have driven trader sentiment toward elevated overnight lows for Chicago on September 2, with model consensus from NOAA and other sources pointing to minimum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s°F amid southerly flow and high dew points that limit radiative cooling. Recent NWS guidance highlights heat indices near 100°F during the day, with partly cloudy conditions and a 40-50% thunderstorm chance after midnight potentially moderating the low by a few degrees depending on timing and cloud cover. Historical September 2 averages near 64°F underscore the anomaly, while short-term variability in wind shifts or clearer skies could differentiate the tightly matched bins around 76-81°F versus cooler or warmer thresholds. Updated model runs ahead of the date remain the key catalyst for any probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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