Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 90–92°F in Chicago on September 1, supported by a warm, humid air mass, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and only a slight chance of morning showers. This late-August pattern of above-normal temperatures, reinforced by the Climate Prediction Center’s extended outlook favoring warmth across the Midwest, positions the 90–91°F bin as the market favorite at 42.5 percent implied probability. Nearby bins (88–89°F and 92–93°F) capture remaining forecast spread, while cooler or much hotter outcomes remain low-probability given current steering patterns and limited model disagreement. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 1?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 1?
90-91°F 43%
88-89°F 26%
86-87°F 22%
92-93°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
26%
90-91°F
43%
92-93°F
20%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
<1%
100°F or higher
<1%
90-91°F 43%
88-89°F 26%
86-87°F 22%
92-93°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
81°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
22%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
26%
90-91°F
$63 Vol.
43%
92-93°F
$115 Vol.
20%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
19%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
7%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
100°F or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 90–92°F in Chicago on September 1, supported by a warm, humid air mass, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and only a slight chance of morning showers. This late-August pattern of above-normal temperatures, reinforced by the Climate Prediction Center’s extended outlook favoring warmth across the Midwest, positions the 90–91°F bin as the market favorite at 42.5 percent implied probability. Nearby bins (88–89°F and 92–93°F) capture remaining forecast spread, while cooler or much hotter outcomes remain low-probability given current steering patterns and limited model disagreement. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$178End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 90–92°F in Chicago on September 1, supported by a warm, humid air mass, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and only a slight chance of morning showers. This late-August pattern of above-normal temperatures, reinforced by the Climate Prediction Center’s extended outlook favoring warmth across the Midwest, positions the 90–91°F bin as the market favorite at 42.5 percent implied probability. Nearby bins (88–89°F and 92–93°F) capture remaining forecast spread, while cooler or much hotter outcomes remain low-probability given current steering patterns and limited model disagreement. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any odds movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$178End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to a high near 90–92°F in Chicago on September 1, supported by a warm, humid air mass, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and only a slight chance of morning showers. This late-August pattern of above-normal temperatures, reinforced by the Climate Prediction Center’s extended outlook favoring warmth across the Midwest, positions the 90–91°F bin as the market favorite at 42.5 percent implied probability. Nearby bins (88–89°F and 92–93°F) capture remaining forecast spread, while cooler or much hotter outcomes remain low-probability given current steering patterns and limited model disagreement. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any odds movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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