**Official NWS forecasts for New York City on September 2, 2026, project a high in the mid-to-upper 70s amid likely showers, high humidity, and southeast winds, directly supporting the market's tight clustering between the 74-75°F (29%) and 76-77°F (30.5%) bins.** Cloud cover and precipitation from a passing frontal system are suppressing daytime heating relative to the warmer, more humid conditions on September 1, while steering patterns and model runs keep peak temperatures from exceeding 78°F. Traders weigh these dynamics against historical early-September averages near 80°F and the inherent spread in short-range model guidance, creating balanced implied probabilities across the leading outcomes with limited upside beyond 80°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 2?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 2?
76-77°F 35%
74-75°F 31%
72-73°F 18%
78-79°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
69°F or below
2%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
35%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 35%
74-75°F 31%
72-73°F 18%
78-79°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
69°F or below
$80 Vol.
2%
70-71°F
$93 Vol.
5%
72-73°F
$82 Vol.
18%
74-75°F
$113 Vol.
31%
76-77°F
$247 Vol.
35%
78-79°F
$73 Vol.
9%
80-81°F
$80 Vol.
4%
82-83°F
$82 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$149 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$336 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$314 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official NWS forecasts for New York City on September 2, 2026, project a high in the mid-to-upper 70s amid likely showers, high humidity, and southeast winds, directly supporting the market's tight clustering between the 74-75°F (29%) and 76-77°F (30.5%) bins.**
Cloud cover and precipitation from a passing frontal system are suppressing daytime heating relative to the warmer, more humid conditions on September 1, while steering patterns and model runs keep peak temperatures from exceeding 78°F. Traders weigh these dynamics against historical early-September averages near 80°F and the inherent spread in short-range model guidance, creating balanced implied probabilities across the leading outcomes with limited upside beyond 80°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,458End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official NWS forecasts for New York City on September 2, 2026, project a high in the mid-to-upper 70s amid likely showers, high humidity, and southeast winds, directly supporting the market's tight clustering between the 74-75°F (29%) and 76-77°F (30.5%) bins.**
Cloud cover and precipitation from a passing frontal system are suppressing daytime heating relative to the warmer, more humid conditions on September 1, while steering patterns and model runs keep peak temperatures from exceeding 78°F. Traders weigh these dynamics against historical early-September averages near 80°F and the inherent spread in short-range model guidance, creating balanced implied probabilities across the leading outcomes with limited upside beyond 80°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,458End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official NWS forecasts for New York City on September 2, 2026, project a high in the mid-to-upper 70s amid likely showers, high humidity, and southeast winds, directly supporting the market's tight clustering between the 74-75°F (29%) and 76-77°F (30.5%) bins.** Cloud cover and precipitation from a passing frontal system are suppressing daytime heating relative to the warmer, more humid conditions on September 1, while steering patterns and model runs keep peak temperatures from exceeding 78°F. Traders weigh these dynamics against historical early-September averages near 80°F and the inherent spread in short-range model guidance, creating balanced implied probabilities across the leading outcomes with limited upside beyond 80°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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