Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City overnight lows near 13–15°C on September 2, consistent with early-September climatology at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered showers expected during the rainy season reduce radiative cooling overnight, while light winds limit mixing of cooler air. Recent model runs show little deviation from these values, with no incoming cold fronts or unusual atmospheric patterns to drive sharper drops or warmer anomalies. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical minimums around 13°C and slight upside risks from variable cloud breaks, producing closely matched probabilities across the 11–15°C range. Updated guidance from Mexican meteorological services and global ensembles will likely refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 2?
11°C 100%
12°C 100%
14°C 100%
15°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
8°C or below
4%
9°C
37%
10°C
-
11°C
100%
12°C
100%
13°C
98%
14°C
100%
15°C
100%
16°C
41%
17°C
27%
18°C or higher
60%
11°C 100%
12°C 100%
14°C 100%
15°C 100%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
9°C
$5 Vol.
37%
10°C
$20 Vol.
-
11°C
$15 Vol.
100%
12°C
$0 Vol.
100%
13°C
$0 Vol.
98%
14°C
$0 Vol.
100%
15°C
$0 Vol.
100%
16°C
$0 Vol.
41%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C or higher
$6 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City overnight lows near 13–15°C on September 2, consistent with early-September climatology at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered showers expected during the rainy season reduce radiative cooling overnight, while light winds limit mixing of cooler air. Recent model runs show little deviation from these values, with no incoming cold fronts or unusual atmospheric patterns to drive sharper drops or warmer anomalies. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical minimums around 13°C and slight upside risks from variable cloud breaks, producing closely matched probabilities across the 11–15°C range. Updated guidance from Mexican meteorological services and global ensembles will likely refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$51End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City overnight lows near 13–15°C on September 2, consistent with early-September climatology at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered showers expected during the rainy season reduce radiative cooling overnight, while light winds limit mixing of cooler air. Recent model runs show little deviation from these values, with no incoming cold fronts or unusual atmospheric patterns to drive sharper drops or warmer anomalies. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical minimums around 13°C and slight upside risks from variable cloud breaks, producing closely matched probabilities across the 11–15°C range. Updated guidance from Mexican meteorological services and global ensembles will likely refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City overnight lows near 13–15°C on September 2, consistent with early-September climatology at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered showers expected during the rainy season reduce radiative cooling overnight, while light winds limit mixing of cooler air. Recent model runs show little deviation from these values, with no incoming cold fronts or unusual atmospheric patterns to drive sharper drops or warmer anomalies. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical minimums around 13°C and slight upside risks from variable cloud breaks, producing closely matched probabilities across the 11–15°C range. Updated guidance from Mexican meteorological services and global ensembles will likely refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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