A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.7°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September global mean temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Official monitoring from NOAA and other agencies confirms El Niño conditions are strengthening with high confidence (>90% chance of persistence and intensification through fall), adding roughly 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies via enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific. Early September 2026 observations and ECMWF ensemble runs show daily global means near +0.99°C versus the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a monthly anomaly likely falling in the 1.30–1.45°C range above pre-industrial levels once full-month data are finalized. Model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño influence create the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the central buckets, while the lower probability on >1.49°C reflects the limited window for further upward surprises before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
24%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
NEW
NEW
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.7°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September global mean temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Official monitoring from NOAA and other agencies confirms El Niño conditions are strengthening with high confidence (>90% chance of persistence and intensification through fall), adding roughly 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies via enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific. Early September 2026 observations and ECMWF ensemble runs show daily global means near +0.99°C versus the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a monthly anomaly likely falling in the 1.30–1.45°C range above pre-industrial levels once full-month data are finalized. Model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño influence create the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the central buckets, while the lower probability on >1.49°C reflects the limited window for further upward surprises before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.7°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September global mean temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Official monitoring from NOAA and other agencies confirms El Niño conditions are strengthening with high confidence (>90% chance of persistence and intensification through fall), adding roughly 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies via enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific. Early September 2026 observations and ECMWF ensemble runs show daily global means near +0.99°C versus the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a monthly anomaly likely falling in the 1.30–1.45°C range above pre-industrial levels once full-month data are finalized. Model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño influence create the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the central buckets, while the lower probability on >1.49°C reflects the limited window for further upward surprises before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.7°C and forecasts pointing to a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September global mean temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Official monitoring from NOAA and other agencies confirms El Niño conditions are strengthening with high confidence (>90% chance of persistence and intensification through fall), adding roughly 0.1–0.2°C to global anomalies via enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific. Early September 2026 observations and ECMWF ensemble runs show daily global means near +0.99°C versus the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a monthly anomaly likely falling in the 1.30–1.45°C range above pre-industrial levels once full-month data are finalized. Model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño influence create the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the central buckets, while the lower probability on >1.49°C reflects the limited window for further upward surprises before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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