Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts indicate a cooling trend for Black Rock Desert during Burning Man 2026 (late August into early September), with daytime highs shifting from near 94°F on August 27 to mostly 78–88°F thereafter due to a passing cold front. This has elevated market-implied odds for a peak of 86°F or below (37.5%) while compressing probabilities for 93°F+. Key differentiators include typical late-summer desert climatology (historical event-week maxima often 90–100°F), strong diurnal swings exceeding 30°F, and low thunderstorm risk limiting localized heating. Updated model runs through early September remain the next major catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature during Burning Man 2026?
Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?
87-88°F 32%
91-92°F 23%
97°F or above 21%
89-90°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
86°F or below
6%
87-88°F
32%
89-90°F
19%
91-92°F
23%
93-94°F
18%
95-96°F
13%
97°F or above
21%
87-88°F 32%
91-92°F 23%
97°F or above 21%
89-90°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
86°F or below
$259 Vol.
6%
87-88°F
$181 Vol.
32%
89-90°F
$73 Vol.
19%
91-92°F
$67 Vol.
23%
93-94°F
$67 Vol.
18%
95-96°F
$149 Vol.
13%
97°F or above
$148 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts indicate a cooling trend for Black Rock Desert during Burning Man 2026 (late August into early September), with daytime highs shifting from near 94°F on August 27 to mostly 78–88°F thereafter due to a passing cold front. This has elevated market-implied odds for a peak of 86°F or below (37.5%) while compressing probabilities for 93°F+. Key differentiators include typical late-summer desert climatology (historical event-week maxima often 90–100°F), strong diurnal swings exceeding 30°F, and low thunderstorm risk limiting localized heating. Updated model runs through early September remain the next major catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$944End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20). Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts indicate a cooling trend for Black Rock Desert during Burning Man 2026 (late August into early September), with daytime highs shifting from near 94°F on August 27 to mostly 78–88°F thereafter due to a passing cold front. This has elevated market-implied odds for a peak of 86°F or below (37.5%) while compressing probabilities for 93°F+. Key differentiators include typical late-summer desert climatology (historical event-week maxima often 90–100°F), strong diurnal swings exceeding 30°F, and low thunderstorm risk limiting localized heating. Updated model runs through early September remain the next major catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded during Burning Man 2026 at the Black Rock City Airport weather station. Temperatures are recorded in degrees Fahrenheit and will be rounded to the nearest whole degree when resolving this market, rounding up on a half (e.g., a reading of 90.5°F resolves as 91°F).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
The resolution period is the full run of Burning Man 2026: August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026. The market resolves based on the single highest temperature recorded across all of these days.
The resolution source is the "Black Rock City - Airport (88NV)" personal weather station (station ID KNVLOVEL7) on Weather Underground, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7. The relevant value is the highest temperature reading shown for the resolution period. The temperature for each day can be seen at the Summary table at "Weather History for KNVLOVEL7" on the Weather Underground station page.
This market will not resolve until data for the final day of the resolution period has been published on the resolution source. If the data for the final day of the resolution period has not been posted by September 8, 2026 3:59 AM ET, this market can be extended until September 10, 2026. If the resolution source does not report temperature data by September 10, 2026 3:59 AM ET, resolution will be based on the highest Air Temperature recorded at the 88NV weather station on top of the 88NV tower from August 30, 2026 through September 7, 2026 (https://dyacon.net/station.php?pid=ed10ad82e14ab7357d3ab2eadbb30b5b#_ABSTRACT_RENDERER_ID_20).
Volume
$944End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNVLOVEL7Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts indicate a cooling trend for Black Rock Desert during Burning Man 2026 (late August into early September), with daytime highs shifting from near 94°F on August 27 to mostly 78–88°F thereafter due to a passing cold front. This has elevated market-implied odds for a peak of 86°F or below (37.5%) while compressing probabilities for 93°F+. Key differentiators include typical late-summer desert climatology (historical event-week maxima often 90–100°F), strong diurnal swings exceeding 30°F, and low thunderstorm risk limiting localized heating. Updated model runs through early September remain the next major catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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