Recent JMA and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 31 indicates mostly cloudy conditions with light easterly flow and scattered showers possible, limiting peak insolation and keeping the daily maximum near 29–31 °C. High boundary-layer moisture and modest onshore advection suppress rapid afternoon warming, while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 31 °C. These factors explain the tight market clustering around 29 °C and 30 °C, with modest probability assigned to 31 °C. Updated model runs and official JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine cloud-cover and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
30°C 34%
29°C 29%
31°C 16%
28°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
12%
29°C
29%
30°C
34%
31°C
16%
32°C
10%
33°C
4%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 34%
29°C 29%
31°C 16%
28°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
$40 Vol.
1%
26°C
$85 Vol.
2%
27°C
$100 Vol.
5%
28°C
$96 Vol.
12%
29°C
$168 Vol.
29%
30°C
$160 Vol.
34%
31°C
$50 Vol.
16%
32°C
$44 Vol.
10%
33°C
$25 Vol.
4%
34°C
$0 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 31 indicates mostly cloudy conditions with light easterly flow and scattered showers possible, limiting peak insolation and keeping the daily maximum near 29–31 °C. High boundary-layer moisture and modest onshore advection suppress rapid afternoon warming, while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 31 °C. These factors explain the tight market clustering around 29 °C and 30 °C, with modest probability assigned to 31 °C. Updated model runs and official JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine cloud-cover and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$768End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 31 indicates mostly cloudy conditions with light easterly flow and scattered showers possible, limiting peak insolation and keeping the daily maximum near 29–31 °C. High boundary-layer moisture and modest onshore advection suppress rapid afternoon warming, while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 31 °C. These factors explain the tight market clustering around 29 °C and 30 °C, with modest probability assigned to 31 °C. Updated model runs and official JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine cloud-cover and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$768End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 31 indicates mostly cloudy conditions with light easterly flow and scattered showers possible, limiting peak insolation and keeping the daily maximum near 29–31 °C. High boundary-layer moisture and modest onshore advection suppress rapid afternoon warming, while any brief clearing could allow brief spikes toward 31 °C. These factors explain the tight market clustering around 29 °C and 30 °C, with modest probability assigned to 31 °C. Updated model runs and official JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine cloud-cover and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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