**Forecast consensus points to a Tokyo minimum near 24°C on August 31, with market odds reflecting modest uncertainty in overnight cooling.** Multiple models, including guidance aligned with Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks, indicate partly cloudy to clearing conditions after recent rain, allowing limited radiative cooling under high humidity. Recent days have featured persistent moisture and lighter winds that suppressed temperature drops, with observed lows around 21–23°C. On the 31st, expected light winds from the east or northeast and possible lingering cloud cover could keep the minimum from falling below 23°C while preventing it from reaching 25°C or higher. Historical August norms (around 23°C) and the short lead time amplify sensitivity to any final model updates on cloud thickness or boundary-layer moisture before resolution. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical late-summer humidity trapping heat and the forecast trend toward drier air.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
24°C 47%
25°C 38%
23°C 32%
26°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
15%
22°C
20%
23°C
32%
24°C
47%
25°C
38%
26°C
24%
27°C
18%
28°C
8%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
1%
24°C 47%
25°C 38%
23°C 32%
26°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
15%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
32%
24°C
$0 Vol.
47%
25°C
$17 Vol.
38%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
18%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C
$0 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a Tokyo minimum near 24°C on August 31, with market odds reflecting modest uncertainty in overnight cooling.** Multiple models, including guidance aligned with Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks, indicate partly cloudy to clearing conditions after recent rain, allowing limited radiative cooling under high humidity. Recent days have featured persistent moisture and lighter winds that suppressed temperature drops, with observed lows around 21–23°C. On the 31st, expected light winds from the east or northeast and possible lingering cloud cover could keep the minimum from falling below 23°C while preventing it from reaching 25°C or higher. Historical August norms (around 23°C) and the short lead time amplify sensitivity to any final model updates on cloud thickness or boundary-layer moisture before resolution. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical late-summer humidity trapping heat and the forecast trend toward drier air.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$17End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a Tokyo minimum near 24°C on August 31, with market odds reflecting modest uncertainty in overnight cooling.** Multiple models, including guidance aligned with Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks, indicate partly cloudy to clearing conditions after recent rain, allowing limited radiative cooling under high humidity. Recent days have featured persistent moisture and lighter winds that suppressed temperature drops, with observed lows around 21–23°C. On the 31st, expected light winds from the east or northeast and possible lingering cloud cover could keep the minimum from falling below 23°C while preventing it from reaching 25°C or higher. Historical August norms (around 23°C) and the short lead time amplify sensitivity to any final model updates on cloud thickness or boundary-layer moisture before resolution. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical late-summer humidity trapping heat and the forecast trend toward drier air.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a Tokyo minimum near 24°C on August 31, with market odds reflecting modest uncertainty in overnight cooling.** Multiple models, including guidance aligned with Japan Meteorological Agency outlooks, indicate partly cloudy to clearing conditions after recent rain, allowing limited radiative cooling under high humidity. Recent days have featured persistent moisture and lighter winds that suppressed temperature drops, with observed lows around 21–23°C. On the 31st, expected light winds from the east or northeast and possible lingering cloud cover could keep the minimum from falling below 23°C while preventing it from reaching 25°C or higher. Historical August norms (around 23°C) and the short lead time amplify sensitivity to any final model updates on cloud thickness or boundary-layer moisture before resolution. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical late-summer humidity trapping heat and the forecast trend toward drier air.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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