Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models point to a Tokyo minimum of 21–23°C on August 29, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeast flow that limits radiational cooling overnight. These conditions follow a period of hotter, clearer weather earlier in the week and align closely with climatological expectations for late August under a moist, stable airmass. Market-implied odds favoring 22°C reflect the tight clustering of deterministic and probabilistic guidance around that value, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes given the modest uncertainty range in short-range temperature forecasts. Official observations from central Tokyo stations will determine the exact recorded minimum once the calendar day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
22°C 44%
21°C 28%
23°C 18%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
28%
22°C
44%
23°C
18%
24°C
8%
25°C
4%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
22°C 44%
21°C 28%
23°C 18%
24°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
$138 Vol.
2%
20°C
$11 Vol.
2%
21°C
$178 Vol.
28%
22°C
$95 Vol.
44%
23°C
$420 Vol.
18%
24°C
$83 Vol.
8%
25°C
$146 Vol.
4%
26°C
$188 Vol.
2%
27°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$69 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models point to a Tokyo minimum of 21–23°C on August 29, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeast flow that limits radiational cooling overnight. These conditions follow a period of hotter, clearer weather earlier in the week and align closely with climatological expectations for late August under a moist, stable airmass. Market-implied odds favoring 22°C reflect the tight clustering of deterministic and probabilistic guidance around that value, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes given the modest uncertainty range in short-range temperature forecasts. Official observations from central Tokyo stations will determine the exact recorded minimum once the calendar day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,453End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models point to a Tokyo minimum of 21–23°C on August 29, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeast flow that limits radiational cooling overnight. These conditions follow a period of hotter, clearer weather earlier in the week and align closely with climatological expectations for late August under a moist, stable airmass. Market-implied odds favoring 22°C reflect the tight clustering of deterministic and probabilistic guidance around that value, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes given the modest uncertainty range in short-range temperature forecasts. Official observations from central Tokyo stations will determine the exact recorded minimum once the calendar day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,453End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models point to a Tokyo minimum of 21–23°C on August 29, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeast flow that limits radiational cooling overnight. These conditions follow a period of hotter, clearer weather earlier in the week and align closely with climatological expectations for late August under a moist, stable airmass. Market-implied odds favoring 22°C reflect the tight clustering of deterministic and probabilistic guidance around that value, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes given the modest uncertainty range in short-range temperature forecasts. Official observations from central Tokyo stations will determine the exact recorded minimum once the calendar day concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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