Recent short-range forecast model runs for Houston show considerable uncertainty in the September 2 overnight minimum, with ensemble spreads spanning roughly 76–82 °F due to variable timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. These convective elements, driven by a moist southerly flow and modest upper-level support, can either enhance or suppress nocturnal radiative cooling depending on cloud persistence and wind speeds. National Weather Service guidance currently centers the low near 78–80 °F, yet modest shifts in boundary-layer moisture or outflow timing could easily move the observed minimum across adjacent two-degree bins. This genuine meteorological spread, combined with limited additional guidance updates before resolution, keeps market-implied probabilities closely balanced across the listed ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 2?
71°F or below 100%
72-73°F 100%
74-75°F 100%
76-77°F 100%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
71°F or below
100%
72-73°F
100%
74-75°F
100%
76-77°F
100%
78-79°F
100%
80-81°F
100%
82-83°F
100%
84-85°F
100%
86-87°F
100%
88-89°F
100%
90°F or higher
100%
71°F or below 100%
72-73°F 100%
74-75°F 100%
76-77°F 100%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
100%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
100%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
100%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
100%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
100%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
100%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
100%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
100%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
100%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
100%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast model runs for Houston show considerable uncertainty in the September 2 overnight minimum, with ensemble spreads spanning roughly 76–82 °F due to variable timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. These convective elements, driven by a moist southerly flow and modest upper-level support, can either enhance or suppress nocturnal radiative cooling depending on cloud persistence and wind speeds. National Weather Service guidance currently centers the low near 78–80 °F, yet modest shifts in boundary-layer moisture or outflow timing could easily move the observed minimum across adjacent two-degree bins. This genuine meteorological spread, combined with limited additional guidance updates before resolution, keeps market-implied probabilities closely balanced across the listed ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast model runs for Houston show considerable uncertainty in the September 2 overnight minimum, with ensemble spreads spanning roughly 76–82 °F due to variable timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. These convective elements, driven by a moist southerly flow and modest upper-level support, can either enhance or suppress nocturnal radiative cooling depending on cloud persistence and wind speeds. National Weather Service guidance currently centers the low near 78–80 °F, yet modest shifts in boundary-layer moisture or outflow timing could easily move the observed minimum across adjacent two-degree bins. This genuine meteorological spread, combined with limited additional guidance updates before resolution, keeps market-implied probabilities closely balanced across the listed ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast model runs for Houston show considerable uncertainty in the September 2 overnight minimum, with ensemble spreads spanning roughly 76–82 °F due to variable timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. These convective elements, driven by a moist southerly flow and modest upper-level support, can either enhance or suppress nocturnal radiative cooling depending on cloud persistence and wind speeds. National Weather Service guidance currently centers the low near 78–80 °F, yet modest shifts in boundary-layer moisture or outflow timing could easily move the observed minimum across adjacent two-degree bins. This genuine meteorological spread, combined with limited additional guidance updates before resolution, keeps market-implied probabilities closely balanced across the listed ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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