**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and others indicate a likely minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F (around 57–58°F) for San Francisco on September 3, amid a cooler-than-normal pattern with onshore flow, marine layer influence, and possible drizzle.** Trader sentiment shows near parity between 49°F or below (43%) and 68°F or higher (42%), reflecting uncertainty over whether the approaching frontal boundary and variable marine layer depth will enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or maintain moderate overnight lows through cloud cover and mixing. Onshore southwest winds and typical September upwelling keep baseline conditions near the 56°F historical average, while model differences on cloud persistence versus brief clearing create the spread across mid-range bins. New forecast updates overnight and Thursday morning will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 3?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 3?
49°F or below 86%
68°F or higher 85%
50-51°F 50%
52-53°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
49°F or below
86%
50-51°F
50%
52-53°F
50%
54-55°F
44%
56-57°F
26%
58-59°F
27%
60-61°F
30%
62-63°F
50%
64-65°F
50%
66-67°F
2%
68°F or higher
85%
49°F or below 86%
68°F or higher 85%
50-51°F 50%
52-53°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
49°F or below
$10 Vol.
86%
50-51°F
$10 Vol.
50%
52-53°F
$10 Vol.
50%
54-55°F
$74 Vol.
44%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
26%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
27%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
30%
62-63°F
$10 Vol.
50%
64-65°F
$10 Vol.
50%
66-67°F
$10 Vol.
2%
68°F or higher
$10 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and others indicate a likely minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F (around 57–58°F) for San Francisco on September 3, amid a cooler-than-normal pattern with onshore flow, marine layer influence, and possible drizzle.**
Trader sentiment shows near parity between 49°F or below (43%) and 68°F or higher (42%), reflecting uncertainty over whether the approaching frontal boundary and variable marine layer depth will enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or maintain moderate overnight lows through cloud cover and mixing. Onshore southwest winds and typical September upwelling keep baseline conditions near the 56°F historical average, while model differences on cloud persistence versus brief clearing create the spread across mid-range bins. New forecast updates overnight and Thursday morning will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$144End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and others indicate a likely minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F (around 57–58°F) for San Francisco on September 3, amid a cooler-than-normal pattern with onshore flow, marine layer influence, and possible drizzle.**
Trader sentiment shows near parity between 49°F or below (43%) and 68°F or higher (42%), reflecting uncertainty over whether the approaching frontal boundary and variable marine layer depth will enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or maintain moderate overnight lows through cloud cover and mixing. Onshore southwest winds and typical September upwelling keep baseline conditions near the 56°F historical average, while model differences on cloud persistence versus brief clearing create the spread across mid-range bins. New forecast updates overnight and Thursday morning will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$144End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and others indicate a likely minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F (around 57–58°F) for San Francisco on September 3, amid a cooler-than-normal pattern with onshore flow, marine layer influence, and possible drizzle.** Trader sentiment shows near parity between 49°F or below (43%) and 68°F or higher (42%), reflecting uncertainty over whether the approaching frontal boundary and variable marine layer depth will enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or maintain moderate overnight lows through cloud cover and mixing. Onshore southwest winds and typical September upwelling keep baseline conditions near the 56°F historical average, while model differences on cloud persistence versus brief clearing create the spread across mid-range bins. New forecast updates overnight and Thursday morning will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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