Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a persistent marine layer with overnight lows in the mid-60s°F for Los Angeles on September 4, driven by anomalously warm coastal sea surface temperatures that limit the depth and inland penetration of the cool, moist air mass beneath a strong temperature inversion. This setup, combined with light onshore flow and patchy fog or low clouds that clear by midday, favors modest radiative cooling rather than the extreme suppression needed for sub-56°F readings or the clear, dry conditions required for minima at or above 74°F. Trader sentiment appears split between these tails because small variations in inversion strength, wind direction, or marine layer thickness—factors that diverge across ensemble runs—could shift the daily minimum by several degrees, while historical September averages near 64–65°F provide limited guidance amid ongoing warm ocean anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 4?
74°F or higher 81%
55°F or below 80%
60-61°F 50%
56-57°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
55°F or below
80%
56-57°F
49%
58-59°F
49%
60-61°F
50%
62-63°F
48%
64-65°F
30%
66-67°F
36%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
49%
74°F or higher
81%
74°F or higher 81%
55°F or below 80%
60-61°F 50%
56-57°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
80%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
49%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
49%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
50%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
48%
64-65°F
$10 Vol.
30%
66-67°F
$37 Vol.
36%
68-69°F
$71 Vol.
18%
70-71°F
$5 Vol.
14%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
49%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a persistent marine layer with overnight lows in the mid-60s°F for Los Angeles on September 4, driven by anomalously warm coastal sea surface temperatures that limit the depth and inland penetration of the cool, moist air mass beneath a strong temperature inversion. This setup, combined with light onshore flow and patchy fog or low clouds that clear by midday, favors modest radiative cooling rather than the extreme suppression needed for sub-56°F readings or the clear, dry conditions required for minima at or above 74°F. Trader sentiment appears split between these tails because small variations in inversion strength, wind direction, or marine layer thickness—factors that diverge across ensemble runs—could shift the daily minimum by several degrees, while historical September averages near 64–65°F provide limited guidance amid ongoing warm ocean anomalies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$122End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a persistent marine layer with overnight lows in the mid-60s°F for Los Angeles on September 4, driven by anomalously warm coastal sea surface temperatures that limit the depth and inland penetration of the cool, moist air mass beneath a strong temperature inversion. This setup, combined with light onshore flow and patchy fog or low clouds that clear by midday, favors modest radiative cooling rather than the extreme suppression needed for sub-56°F readings or the clear, dry conditions required for minima at or above 74°F. Trader sentiment appears split between these tails because small variations in inversion strength, wind direction, or marine layer thickness—factors that diverge across ensemble runs—could shift the daily minimum by several degrees, while historical September averages near 64–65°F provide limited guidance amid ongoing warm ocean anomalies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$122End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a persistent marine layer with overnight lows in the mid-60s°F for Los Angeles on September 4, driven by anomalously warm coastal sea surface temperatures that limit the depth and inland penetration of the cool, moist air mass beneath a strong temperature inversion. This setup, combined with light onshore flow and patchy fog or low clouds that clear by midday, favors modest radiative cooling rather than the extreme suppression needed for sub-56°F readings or the clear, dry conditions required for minima at or above 74°F. Trader sentiment appears split between these tails because small variations in inversion strength, wind direction, or marine layer thickness—factors that diverge across ensemble runs—could shift the daily minimum by several degrees, while historical September averages near 64–65°F provide limited guidance amid ongoing warm ocean anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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