Current forecasts from models like those used by WeatherBug and Yr indicate Mexico City nighttime lows near 11–14°C on September 4 amid the rainy season, where afternoon convection often produces variable cloud cover and showers that moderate radiative cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. Persistent humidity and light winds limit extreme drops, while clearer intervals could allow greater overnight cooling toward single digits; conversely, thicker cloud decks or heavier rain would trap heat and push minima above 15°C. Trader consensus remains closely split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes because short-range ensemble guidance shows modest divergence on exact cloud timing and intensity over the next 48 hours, with historical September averages around 10–12°C providing limited additional constraint this close to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 4?
7°C or below 92%
17°C or higher 89%
8°C 49%
9°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
92%
8°C
49%
9°C
49%
10°C
28%
11°C
32%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
47%
15°C
30%
16°C
49%
17°C or higher
89%
7°C or below 92%
17°C or higher 89%
8°C 49%
9°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
92%
8°C
$0 Vol.
49%
9°C
$0 Vol.
49%
10°C
$0 Vol.
28%
11°C
$0 Vol.
32%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
47%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models like those used by WeatherBug and Yr indicate Mexico City nighttime lows near 11–14°C on September 4 amid the rainy season, where afternoon convection often produces variable cloud cover and showers that moderate radiative cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. Persistent humidity and light winds limit extreme drops, while clearer intervals could allow greater overnight cooling toward single digits; conversely, thicker cloud decks or heavier rain would trap heat and push minima above 15°C. Trader consensus remains closely split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes because short-range ensemble guidance shows modest divergence on exact cloud timing and intensity over the next 48 hours, with historical September averages around 10–12°C providing limited additional constraint this close to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models like those used by WeatherBug and Yr indicate Mexico City nighttime lows near 11–14°C on September 4 amid the rainy season, where afternoon convection often produces variable cloud cover and showers that moderate radiative cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. Persistent humidity and light winds limit extreme drops, while clearer intervals could allow greater overnight cooling toward single digits; conversely, thicker cloud decks or heavier rain would trap heat and push minima above 15°C. Trader consensus remains closely split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes because short-range ensemble guidance shows modest divergence on exact cloud timing and intensity over the next 48 hours, with historical September averages around 10–12°C providing limited additional constraint this close to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from models like those used by WeatherBug and Yr indicate Mexico City nighttime lows near 11–14°C on September 4 amid the rainy season, where afternoon convection often produces variable cloud cover and showers that moderate radiative cooling at the city's 2,240 m elevation. Persistent humidity and light winds limit extreme drops, while clearer intervals could allow greater overnight cooling toward single digits; conversely, thicker cloud decks or heavier rain would trap heat and push minima above 15°C. Trader consensus remains closely split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes because short-range ensemble guidance shows modest divergence on exact cloud timing and intensity over the next 48 hours, with historical September averages around 10–12°C providing limited additional constraint this close to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions