**An approaching early-season upper-level low and trailing cold front are the dominant drivers pushing Seattle’s September 2 high into the mid-60s.** Official NWS guidance and multiple model runs issued August 31 forecast a high of 66–67°F (or 64–66°F range) under mostly cloudy skies, with rain developing through the day, south winds of 10–15 mph gusting higher, and measurable precipitation that limits diurnal heating. These conditions represent a sharp departure from the early-September climatological average high near 74°F, reflecting cooler marine air advection ahead of the system. Recent model consensus has stabilized around this cooler, unsettled regime after warmer, drier conditions on September 1, with little disagreement on the temperature range once clouds and rain arrive. The market-implied probabilities—led by 66–67°F (37%) and 64–65°F (24.5%)—closely track this forecast envelope, as traders price in the limited upside potential from suppressed insolation and the low likelihood of readings reaching the upper 60s or 70s. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycles will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on September 2?
Highest temperature in Seattle on September 2?
66-67°F 37%
64-65°F 25%
62-63°F 16%
68-69°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
37%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
1%
74°F or higher
1%
66-67°F 37%
64-65°F 25%
62-63°F 16%
68-69°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$60 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$45 Vol.
3%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
6%
62-63°F
$46 Vol.
16%
64-65°F
$913 Vol.
25%
66-67°F
$236 Vol.
37%
68-69°F
$855 Vol.
15%
70-71°F
$391 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$94 Vol.
1%
74°F or higher
$181 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**An approaching early-season upper-level low and trailing cold front are the dominant drivers pushing Seattle’s September 2 high into the mid-60s.** Official NWS guidance and multiple model runs issued August 31 forecast a high of 66–67°F (or 64–66°F range) under mostly cloudy skies, with rain developing through the day, south winds of 10–15 mph gusting higher, and measurable precipitation that limits diurnal heating. These conditions represent a sharp departure from the early-September climatological average high near 74°F, reflecting cooler marine air advection ahead of the system.
Recent model consensus has stabilized around this cooler, unsettled regime after warmer, drier conditions on September 1, with little disagreement on the temperature range once clouds and rain arrive. The market-implied probabilities—led by 66–67°F (37%) and 64–65°F (24.5%)—closely track this forecast envelope, as traders price in the limited upside potential from suppressed insolation and the low likelihood of readings reaching the upper 60s or 70s. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycles will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 7:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,821End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**An approaching early-season upper-level low and trailing cold front are the dominant drivers pushing Seattle’s September 2 high into the mid-60s.** Official NWS guidance and multiple model runs issued August 31 forecast a high of 66–67°F (or 64–66°F range) under mostly cloudy skies, with rain developing through the day, south winds of 10–15 mph gusting higher, and measurable precipitation that limits diurnal heating. These conditions represent a sharp departure from the early-September climatological average high near 74°F, reflecting cooler marine air advection ahead of the system.
Recent model consensus has stabilized around this cooler, unsettled regime after warmer, drier conditions on September 1, with little disagreement on the temperature range once clouds and rain arrive. The market-implied probabilities—led by 66–67°F (37%) and 64–65°F (24.5%)—closely track this forecast envelope, as traders price in the limited upside potential from suppressed insolation and the low likelihood of readings reaching the upper 60s or 70s. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycles will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,821End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**An approaching early-season upper-level low and trailing cold front are the dominant drivers pushing Seattle’s September 2 high into the mid-60s.** Official NWS guidance and multiple model runs issued August 31 forecast a high of 66–67°F (or 64–66°F range) under mostly cloudy skies, with rain developing through the day, south winds of 10–15 mph gusting higher, and measurable precipitation that limits diurnal heating. These conditions represent a sharp departure from the early-September climatological average high near 74°F, reflecting cooler marine air advection ahead of the system. Recent model consensus has stabilized around this cooler, unsettled regime after warmer, drier conditions on September 1, with little disagreement on the temperature range once clouds and rain arrive. The market-implied probabilities—led by 66–67°F (37%) and 64–65°F (24.5%)—closely track this forecast envelope, as traders price in the limited upside potential from suppressed insolation and the low likelihood of readings reaching the upper 60s or 70s. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycles will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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