Recent official and model forecasts for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, cluster around a daily maximum of 30–32°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation, directly supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (49%) and 30°C (24%). Residual late-summer warmth, elevated humidity, and limited cloud cover allow surface heating to reach these levels before any frontal influence arrives later in the week. Numerical weather prediction consensus, including runs showing afternoon peaks near 31°C, underpins trader positioning, while the small probabilities assigned to 33°C+ reflect model spread and the chance of slightly stronger insolation or delayed cooling. Updated guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 2?
31°C 49%
30°C 24%
32°C 13%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
24%
31°C
49%
32°C
13%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 49%
30°C 24%
32°C 13%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
26°C or below
$2,159 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$373 Vol.
1%
28°C
$300 Vol.
3%
29°C
$600 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,185 Vol.
24%
31°C
$1,104 Vol.
49%
32°C
$1,540 Vol.
13%
33°C
$1,188 Vol.
2%
34°C
$428 Vol.
2%
35°C
$365 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and model forecasts for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, cluster around a daily maximum of 30–32°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation, directly supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (49%) and 30°C (24%). Residual late-summer warmth, elevated humidity, and limited cloud cover allow surface heating to reach these levels before any frontal influence arrives later in the week. Numerical weather prediction consensus, including runs showing afternoon peaks near 31°C, underpins trader positioning, while the small probabilities assigned to 33°C+ reflect model spread and the chance of slightly stronger insolation or delayed cooling. Updated guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,594End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and model forecasts for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, cluster around a daily maximum of 30–32°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation, directly supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (49%) and 30°C (24%). Residual late-summer warmth, elevated humidity, and limited cloud cover allow surface heating to reach these levels before any frontal influence arrives later in the week. Numerical weather prediction consensus, including runs showing afternoon peaks near 31°C, underpins trader positioning, while the small probabilities assigned to 33°C+ reflect model spread and the chance of slightly stronger insolation or delayed cooling. Updated guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,594End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official and model forecasts for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, cluster around a daily maximum of 30–32°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation, directly supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 31°C (49%) and 30°C (24%). Residual late-summer warmth, elevated humidity, and limited cloud cover allow surface heating to reach these levels before any frontal influence arrives later in the week. Numerical weather prediction consensus, including runs showing afternoon peaks near 31°C, underpins trader positioning, while the small probabilities assigned to 33°C+ reflect model spread and the chance of slightly stronger insolation or delayed cooling. Updated guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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