Recent forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and regional models indicate a high near 97°F for Austin on September 3 amid a persistent late-summer heat dome over Texas, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 94–97°F. Key differentiators include the degree of afternoon convection and cloud cover from Gulf moisture, which can cap daytime heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling, versus stronger subsidence maintaining clear skies and higher maxima. Historical averages near 94°F and recent upper-90s readings provide context, while model spread on storm timing introduces the observed uncertainty between the top two bins. Traders weigh these variables against official National Weather Service updates expected in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 3?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 3?
96-97°F 35%
94-95°F 28%
98-99°F 20%
92-93°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
85°F or below
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
9%
92-93°F
12%
94-95°F
28%
96-97°F
35%
98-99°F
20%
100-101°F
10%
102-103°F
6%
104°F or higher
2%
96-97°F 35%
94-95°F 28%
98-99°F 20%
92-93°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
85°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$10 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$72 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$7 Vol.
9%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
12%
94-95°F
$80 Vol.
28%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
35%
98-99°F
$8 Vol.
20%
100-101°F
$8 Vol.
10%
102-103°F
$7 Vol.
6%
104°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and regional models indicate a high near 97°F for Austin on September 3 amid a persistent late-summer heat dome over Texas, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 94–97°F. Key differentiators include the degree of afternoon convection and cloud cover from Gulf moisture, which can cap daytime heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling, versus stronger subsidence maintaining clear skies and higher maxima. Historical averages near 94°F and recent upper-90s readings provide context, while model spread on storm timing introduces the observed uncertainty between the top two bins. Traders weigh these variables against official National Weather Service updates expected in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$191End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and regional models indicate a high near 97°F for Austin on September 3 amid a persistent late-summer heat dome over Texas, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 94–97°F. Key differentiators include the degree of afternoon convection and cloud cover from Gulf moisture, which can cap daytime heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling, versus stronger subsidence maintaining clear skies and higher maxima. Historical averages near 94°F and recent upper-90s readings provide context, while model spread on storm timing introduces the observed uncertainty between the top two bins. Traders weigh these variables against official National Weather Service updates expected in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$191End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and regional models indicate a high near 97°F for Austin on September 3 amid a persistent late-summer heat dome over Texas, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 94–97°F. Key differentiators include the degree of afternoon convection and cloud cover from Gulf moisture, which can cap daytime heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling, versus stronger subsidence maintaining clear skies and higher maxima. Historical averages near 94°F and recent upper-90s readings provide context, while model spread on storm timing introduces the observed uncertainty between the top two bins. Traders weigh these variables against official National Weather Service updates expected in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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