Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate overnight lows in the low 70s °F for New York City on September 3, driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southwest flow, elevated dew points near 70 °F, and widespread cloud cover plus showers limiting radiative cooling. This setup contrasts with the long-term average low of 65 °F and favors 70–73 °F outcomes, where the two leading bins each hold 28% implied probability. Model consensus remains tight but allows modest variance from exact steering winds or timing of any clearing, keeping 68–69 °F as the next most favored bin at 24.5%. Traders are weighting recent humid conditions and limited nocturnal cooling against the possibility of slightly stronger radiational cooling if skies briefly clear.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 3?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 3?
70-71°F 28%
72-73°F 28%
68-69°F 24%
63°F or below 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
63°F or below
17%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
24%
70-71°F
28%
72-73°F
28%
74-75°F
15%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
2%
82°F or higher
2%
70-71°F 28%
72-73°F 28%
68-69°F 24%
63°F or below 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
63°F or below
$10 Vol.
17%
64-65°F
$26 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
14%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
24%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
28%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
28%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
15%
76-77°F
$10 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$10 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$10 Vol.
2%
82°F or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate overnight lows in the low 70s °F for New York City on September 3, driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southwest flow, elevated dew points near 70 °F, and widespread cloud cover plus showers limiting radiative cooling. This setup contrasts with the long-term average low of 65 °F and favors 70–73 °F outcomes, where the two leading bins each hold 28% implied probability. Model consensus remains tight but allows modest variance from exact steering winds or timing of any clearing, keeping 68–69 °F as the next most favored bin at 24.5%. Traders are weighting recent humid conditions and limited nocturnal cooling against the possibility of slightly stronger radiational cooling if skies briefly clear.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$76End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate overnight lows in the low 70s °F for New York City on September 3, driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southwest flow, elevated dew points near 70 °F, and widespread cloud cover plus showers limiting radiative cooling. This setup contrasts with the long-term average low of 65 °F and favors 70–73 °F outcomes, where the two leading bins each hold 28% implied probability. Model consensus remains tight but allows modest variance from exact steering winds or timing of any clearing, keeping 68–69 °F as the next most favored bin at 24.5%. Traders are weighting recent humid conditions and limited nocturnal cooling against the possibility of slightly stronger radiational cooling if skies briefly clear.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$76End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate overnight lows in the low 70s °F for New York City on September 3, driven by a persistent warm, humid air mass with southwest flow, elevated dew points near 70 °F, and widespread cloud cover plus showers limiting radiative cooling. This setup contrasts with the long-term average low of 65 °F and favors 70–73 °F outcomes, where the two leading bins each hold 28% implied probability. Model consensus remains tight but allows modest variance from exact steering winds or timing of any clearing, keeping 68–69 °F as the next most favored bin at 24.5%. Traders are weighting recent humid conditions and limited nocturnal cooling against the possibility of slightly stronger radiational cooling if skies briefly clear.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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