Recent forecasts from regional models indicate minimum temperatures in Panama City, Panama, will likely hold near 25–26°C overnight into September 3, driven by persistent high humidity, frequent cloud cover from showers, and light winds typical of the tropical wet season. These factors limit radiative cooling after sunset, keeping lows well above the 20°C threshold while preventing spikes that would push the daily minimum to 28°C or higher. Ensemble guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability, with any brief clear intervals offering limited potential for slightly lower readings around 24–25°C; traders appear to weigh this stable pattern against historical September averages near 24°C, resulting in closely matched probabilities across the 20–30°C range. Updated model runs tonight will refine land-sea breeze and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Panama City on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Panama City on September 3?
30°C or higher 90%
20°C or below 86%
21°C 50%
22°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
20°C or below
86%
21°C
50%
22°C
50%
23°C
27%
24°C
27%
25°C
27%
26°C
27%
27°C
27%
28°C
26%
29°C
50%
30°C or higher
90%
30°C or higher 90%
20°C or below 86%
21°C 50%
22°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
20°C or below
$10 Vol.
86%
21°C
$10 Vol.
50%
22°C
$10 Vol.
50%
23°C
$1 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$10 Vol.
50%
30°C or higher
$10 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from regional models indicate minimum temperatures in Panama City, Panama, will likely hold near 25–26°C overnight into September 3, driven by persistent high humidity, frequent cloud cover from showers, and light winds typical of the tropical wet season. These factors limit radiative cooling after sunset, keeping lows well above the 20°C threshold while preventing spikes that would push the daily minimum to 28°C or higher. Ensemble guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability, with any brief clear intervals offering limited potential for slightly lower readings around 24–25°C; traders appear to weigh this stable pattern against historical September averages near 24°C, resulting in closely matched probabilities across the 20–30°C range. Updated model runs tonight will refine land-sea breeze and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$51End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from regional models indicate minimum temperatures in Panama City, Panama, will likely hold near 25–26°C overnight into September 3, driven by persistent high humidity, frequent cloud cover from showers, and light winds typical of the tropical wet season. These factors limit radiative cooling after sunset, keeping lows well above the 20°C threshold while preventing spikes that would push the daily minimum to 28°C or higher. Ensemble guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability, with any brief clear intervals offering limited potential for slightly lower readings around 24–25°C; traders appear to weigh this stable pattern against historical September averages near 24°C, resulting in closely matched probabilities across the 20–30°C range. Updated model runs tonight will refine land-sea breeze and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from regional models indicate minimum temperatures in Panama City, Panama, will likely hold near 25–26°C overnight into September 3, driven by persistent high humidity, frequent cloud cover from showers, and light winds typical of the tropical wet season. These factors limit radiative cooling after sunset, keeping lows well above the 20°C threshold while preventing spikes that would push the daily minimum to 28°C or higher. Ensemble guidance shows only modest day-to-day variability, with any brief clear intervals offering limited potential for slightly lower readings around 24–25°C; traders appear to weigh this stable pattern against historical September averages near 24°C, resulting in closely matched probabilities across the 20–30°C range. Updated model runs tonight will refine land-sea breeze and precipitation timing ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions